The focus is on Geert Wilders, a controversial figure in the Netherlands but who could become the country's next prime minister if the polls are correct. Photo: Shutterstock/Robin Utrecht
Geert Wilders, an anti-immigrant outspoken figure known for his harsh rhetoric against Islam, is surprisingly leading in the polls ahead of the Dutch general election on Wednesday.
The veteran leader of the far-right PVV was forecast on Tuesday to win 28 seats, enough to potentially make him prime minister in a country where nearly one million people, more than five percent of the population, are Muslim.
“ According to the latest poll, we are the largest party in the Netherlands!” – said the populist with brown hair. “Make it true tomorrow.”
It would be a seismic victory for Mr Wilders, who has been a member of parliament since 1998 but has never been a formal member of any Dutch government.
The election is being held to replace Mark Rutte, the former leader of the VVD and the longest-serving prime minister in Dutch history.
Mr Wilders increased his support by two seats in 24 hours and became the leader by one, while his rivals in the three-way race remained in second place in Tuesday's poll. . About 63 percent of voters are still undecided.
Polls on Monday evening showed Mr Wilders moving from fourth to third place and then ahead of the pro-business VVD and Groenlinks-PvdA, an alliance of green and left parties. under the leadership of Frans Timmermans, former EU climate change chief.
Mr Wilders has toned down his inflammatory rhetoric in a campaign dominated by issues of migration, the cost of living and the housing crisis, amid reports he could be king in a future coalition. Victory in the elections will give him his first attempt to form a government.
As his campaign gained momentum in the final days before the vote, boosted by strong performances in televised leadership debates over the weekend, he absorbed the anti-establishment populist voices of his opponents. That support has shifted from the BBB, the Dutch farmers' party that won regional elections earlier this year, to the radical centrist New Social Contract party founded by the hugely popular Pieter Omtzigt just three months ago before switching to the PVV.
However, 60-year-old Eurosceptic Wilders will face stiff opposition from Dilan Yesilgoz, the 46-year-old leader of the VVD, who led the polls with Timmermans until the latest surge in the VVD.
Wilders has recently toned down his inflammatory rhetoric. Photo: Shutterstock/Koen van Weel
Ms Yeşilgez, a former refugee from Ankara dubbed a “pit bull in high heels”, had previously appeared on course to become the Netherlands' first female prime minister after vowing to crack down on migration. She could still lead a conservative coalition if the divisive Mr Wilders fails to form a government, keeping her party in power after 13 years under “Teflon Mark” Rutte.
The latest polls put her on 27 seats, as did Timmermans, who warned left-wing voters that he was their only chance to prevent the creation of a right-wing coalition.
Ms Yesilgez moved to the Netherlands as an MP. an eight-year-old girl in 1984, along with her mother and sister, joined her father, a Kurdish human rights activist who had fled Turkey three years earlier. She was Rutte's hardline justice minister and was compared to former British home secretary Suella Braverman, whose parents moved to this country from India and who spearheaded the controversial Rwanda plan.
Yesilgez rules out a coalition with Wilders.
Mr Rutte's coalition government collapsed in July when his partners opposed his push for tougher immigration rules following a crushing March defeat by the BBB in regional elections dominated by tractor protests. against his green policies.
Ms Yeşilgez could benefit from broad support from other right-wing parties promising restrictions on migration, which may be reluctant to enter into an alliance with Mr Wilders, who is going everywhere with bodyguards because of his frequent criticism of the Koran.
Omtzigt, a possible ally who was leading in the polls but lost support after suggesting he might not want to be prime minister, is forecast to win 21 seats. The BBB, which also supports limiting the number of asylum seekers, has a capacity of five.
At the start of the election campaign, Ms Yesilgez said she would not exclude Mr Wilders from coalition talks, unlike her predecessor Mr Rutte. Mr Timmermans accused her of opening the door for Wilders to enter the government, whom he accused of treating a million Dutch Muslims as “second-class citizens”.
However, on Tuesday Ms Yesilgez declared that she would not join the government. into a coalition with Mr Wilders if he becomes prime minister, and that she does not think the PVV will win the election.
“I have no intention of doing that,” she said. “This country needs a leader who can connect.”
Dilan Yesilgoz (right) says he will not join a coalition with Wilders (left) if he became prime minister. Photo: Shutterstock
André Crouwel, who teaches political science at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, said Ms Yeşilgez was trying to split the anti-establishment vote between the PVV and the NSC, without explicitly ruling out any coalition. . The associate professor told the Telegraph he encouraged voters to turn to the PVV because it had a chance in government, unlike in the past.
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