It's fair to say that Sir Simon Clarke's suggestion that the Tories must unseat Rishi Sunak or face an “election massacre” , was a success. has not gone down well with his Conservative colleagues.
The former minister, who served as chief secretary to the Treasury under Sunak as chancellor, faced a backlash after becoming the second member of the Conservative party to publicly call on the prime minister to quit resign.
Calling Mr Sunak's “boring leadership” the “major obstacle to recovery”, the former promotion secretary has now been accused of “throwing his teddies in a corner” with his appearance in the Daily Telegraph on Wednesday.
Summing up the sentiment, Dame Priti Patel, the former Home Secretary, wrote on X (previously on Twitter): “Indulging and divisive only serves our opponents, it's time to unite and get to work.”
Andrew Bowie, the nuclear energy minister, was more direct in a Conservative WhatsApp group, calling on critics to “get a grip”, adding: “Can we take more than five minutes away from civil war and leadership profiteering?”
< However, while rank and file pundits opine on "yet another leadership psychodrama", the truth is that many Tories privately think just like Sir Simon, not least after a YouGov poll found they were "facing a 1997-style annihilation", with Labor predicted to win a huge majority. out of 120.
As one former cabinet minister explained: “We know Rishi is absolutely useless, but replacing him now would be an extreme act of self-sabotage.”
Isaac Levido, a protégé of Lynton Crosbie who is running the Tories' general election campaign, has repeatedly urged MPs to “unite or die” and the majority appear to be heeding his advice. While the big beasts, including Dame Priti and David Davis, the former Brexit minister, went public with their criticism of the rebels in their midst, the gray ones also quietly warned of the dangers of submitting letters of no confidence to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 committee.
One of the reasons why the threat of rebellion over the Rwanda Bill last week eventually fizzled out is because of the “three wise men” of former party leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith, John Redwood and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg convinced colleagues not to give up victory alone. plate to Sir Keir Starmer. Meanwhile, a number of senior Tories, including former defense secretary Liam Fox, are calling on Downing Street to “take on Labour” by celebrating Conservative successes rather than allowing Sir Keir to “rewrite and distort recent history”.
They, like everyone else in No 10, are frustrated that Westminster is now dominated by talk of Tory infighting rather than the dangers of a new Labor government.
Although Sir Simon and Andrea Jenkins, the former skills minister, are believed to have both submitted letters of no confidence, Sir Graham joked to this newspaper on Monday that he “didn't was so busy,” according to reports.
How long this will last seems to depend on two factors: what's in the budget and what Nigel Farage decides to do next.
Jeremy Hunt is currently being heavily lobbied to do what one Tory MP called ” “a conservative budget to end all budgets,” adding: “Unless he pulls a giant rabbit out of his hat, we're doomed.
The Chancellor is making all the right noises, recently invoking the spirit of his Thatcherite predecessor Nigel Lawson and frequently hinting at tax cuts. But, as one MP put it: “There is Jeremy Hunt's idea of a Conservative budget, and then there is the idea of a Tory budget.”
With an estimated £20bn of extra budget headroom to play with following the fall in public sector borrowing, desperate Tories are desperately hoping he will give them something hearty to sell on the doorstep – ahead of the May election which , are predicted to be catastrophic. (Tory mayors including Ben Houchen and Andy Street from Tees Valley in the West Midlands also face a potentially volatile ballot – while Susan Hall, the Conservative candidate in London, is expected to lose to the incumbent from Labor Party Sadiq Khan).
Without Mr Sunak moving the dial, sticking to his 'five point plan', unless the Budget narrows the polls and the Tories are crucified in May 2, the situation in Downing Street could become even more dire than it already is.
Add to this Farage's announcement that he will lead reform (some opinion polls predict a move could boost party support by up to 20 percent), and the Tories face not just total destruction, but possible extinction, they may begin to think that they have nothing to do. will lose by replacing the prime minister.
Much has been said about Lord Frost's role in the recent disastrous YouGov poll commissioned by the Conservative UK Alliance, a previously unknown organization described only as a “conservative donor group”. “.
He is backed by Peter Cruddas, the former Conservative Party treasurer and key ally of Boris Johnson, who wants to give MPs a full say in choosing candidates “with minimal interference from CCHQ [Conservative campaign headquarters]”, including the power to override MPs' selections. His vice-president is Stephen Greenhalgh, a former deputy mayor and minister in the House of Lords under Johnson. Its chairman is another key Johnson supporter, David Campbell Bannerman, a former MEP.
It is not surprising that some Tories point a suspicious finger at Johnson for upsetting the No. 10 apple cart.While there is no doubt that Suella Braverman and her supporters were at the center of the uprising in Rwanda last week, there appears to be an understanding that the former home secretary will not be a future Tory leader, hence the recent talk of Kemi. Badenoch, currently topping a ConHome poll of Mr Sunak's potential successors.
However, none of the Tory leadership contenders appear willing to take the helm now, only to face almost certain electoral disaster. According to one Commons source quoted in a recent News Statesman article by Andrew Marr, a well-connected former BBC political editor, Ms Badenoch was genuinely concerned that the Prime Minister might lose the third reading vote on the Rwanda Bill because she didn't do this. I don't want a premature leadership fight or early general election. She was apparently overheard when she remarked that “Rishi must admit defeat.”
Mr Johnson will also be wary of a Cincinnatus-style comeback if he cannot guarantee victory.
There is currently open speculation in Tory circles about whether Johnson might be better off teaming up with Farage to form his own En Marche style right-wing movement, fueled by grassroots discontent. They will need not only a huge military budget, but also an army of activists. However, they may prove more effective recruiters than the Conservatives.
While Tory party chairman Richard Holden boasts more campaign managers than ever and £50 million in donations since then Since Sunak came to power in October 2022, Tory MPs have been telling a different story.
Amid reports the party is struggling to find willing Conservative candidates, MPs have also expressed concern that they will not be able to attract enough activists to go to the polls.
According to one veteran Conservative who is leaving for resign at the next general election, he was one of 120 candidates to apply for the then Labor Party seat in the noughties, but since his resignation was announced, only 11 have applied to replace him, although he has a healthy majority.
“It turns out that it is very difficult to get people to campaign for us, let alone support us,” he added.
“Rishi is still undecided.”
Part of the problem, of course, is that One Conservative Party source described Mr Sunak's “lack of breakthrough”. Now that his personal approval rating has fallen to Liz Truss levels, he is being compared to Theresa May for being decent, hard-working and intelligent, but completely lacking in charisma.
However, Sunak may still have a narrow runway, despite his lack of populism and personality.
As one long-time Conservative explained: “The truth is there is no such thing as Sir Galahad going to the rescue, saying: “Don't worry, I've got that taken care of.”
“The reality now is that the next general election depends crucially on what we say and what we do, and not from the way we speak. this.
“Rishi has not defined himself – the public does not know who he is. At this stage, politics is more important than personality. What he needs to do is take the fight to Labor and define what makes us different. He must be prepared to make the case and show how much worse things are with Labor in power.
“He needs to say things like: vote for Starmer, get gender identity in Scotland. People didn't support Thatcher because she spoke like one of the people – they respected her because she made her views clear and gave them a choice of opposition. If Rishi doesn't do it or doesn't do it, we're finished anyway.”
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