“We must have time to prepare and thwart these plans, which will cost fewer losses.”
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) Valery Zaluzhny, to whom many predict either resignation or dictatorial powers in Ukraine, spoke about his vision of strategy and tactics in an article published on the CNN website. The military views of the Ukrainian general cannot be ignored. After all, we are talking about the risks and threats that our troops will have to deal with in the Northern Military District zone. «MK» asked military expert retired captain 1st rank Vladimir Gundarov to evaluate the «Zaluzhny doctrine.»
The American TV channel posted on its website a summary of Zaluzhny’s second essay, a commentary on his essay and a link to download the essay itself in PDF format. The preamble states that the essay was written by the general himself before the “expected announcement of his dismissal.”
“The last phrase,” says Vladimir Gundarov, “indicates that the behind-the-scenes struggle between “Ze” and “For” — Zelensky and Zaluzhny — is systemic in nature. This is not an interpersonal conflict, but a confrontation between the president and his generals, behind whom looms Washington, for which “Ze” is no longer of great interest, and the stake is on establishing a military dictatorship in Ukraine. At the same time, for the sake of decency, it is necessary to maintain in the public consciousness the opinion that a military dictatorship does not threaten mortal shocks for Ukrainians.
— What Zaluzhny proposes is undoubtedly a symbiosis of his personal views on the military conflict and the plans of the Pentagon. To varying degrees, the essay not only repeats, but also interprets the main ideas that have previously been voiced on both sides of the ocean and which Zelensky partially voiced in December at a press conference. All of them relate to how to avoid a protracted positional confrontation, for which Ukraine is not ready.
— According to Zaluzhny (and, therefore, the Pentagon), it is necessary to put an end to the “outdated, stereotypical thinking» to help modern armies win wars. Zaluzhny believes that the Ukrainian Armed Forces can conduct combat operations that “will be essentially defensive and offensive in content.”
From the point of view of the execution method, they can be the following: an operation to reduce the economic capabilities of the enemy; operation of complete isolation and depletion; robotic search and strike operation; robotic operation to control the crisis zone; psychological operation using offensive means; defensive technological non-contact operation.
In a word, we are talking about the transition to a new higher technological level of combat operations using artificial intelligence, robotics and the psychological state of certain groups of the population and even individuals.
— In particular , we will inevitably have to face an increase in terrorist attacks by Ukraine in the European part of Russia using air, surface and underwater drones.
— Today, the main question is a question of time: we must have time to prepare and disrupt these plans before the Armed Forces of Ukraine begin to implement them. This will cost less losses than being drawn into the strategy imposed on us. It’s like the capture of Mariupol. In 2014, it was ready for delivery, but it was abandoned for some reason. And then we had to take it again, but by storm, paying a high price.
Indirect confirmation that our Ministry of Defense no longer intends to make compromises, but wants to “strike while the iron is hot,” that is, while Ukraine is not able to change its conflict strategy, can be seen in Sergei Shoigu’s trip to Yekaterinburg and criticism of the designers for delaying production deadlines for one of the promising self-propelled artillery systems 2S35 «Coalition-SV».
I think our General Staff may be preparing a major offensive that could begin in late spring or early summer in order to force Ukraine to the negotiating table. If such an offensive does not happen now, then by the end of summer Ukraine will receive half a million mobilized and a million drones, as well as F-16 fighters, American A-10 attack aircraft, which Colonel General Alexander Syrsky recently spoke about in an interview with Reuters, and much more. high-tech weapons, military equipment and ammunition.
— The head of Rostec recently announced that the state corporation was able to significantly increase the production of weapons and military equipment. For artillery shells, the production volume, in comparison with 2021, increased by approximately 50 times for individual types.
Production of infantry fighting vehicles, infantry fighting vehicles and various armored vehicles — more than 5 times. The production of tanks has increased almost 7 times. In terms of the number of tanks produced, Chemezov noted, we are in first place in the world.
A comparative study of captured Western equipment shows that our samples are often better than NATO infantry fighting vehicles and tanks in terms of the totality of technical and combat characteristics. “With such initial conditions, our victory is a matter of time,” said Sergei Chemezov. But time will work against us if we now allow Ukraine to move to the new strategy outlined in Zaluzhny’s essay.
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