The world's population will begin to decline in the coming decades, media write.

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MOSCOW, March 21 The world's population will begin to decline in the coming decades for the first time since the Black Death pandemic in the 14th century due to a sharp decline fertility indicators, the Telegraph newspaper reports, citing a study of fertility around the world published in the Lancet journal.
The newspaper recalls that as a result of the plague pandemic that occurred in the 14th century, the world's population decreased from 400 million to 350 million people, while the population of Europe decreased by about a third. It is noted that this is the only period in history when a decrease in the planet’s population was recorded.

“The world population is expected to decline for the first time since the Black Death due to a sharp decline in fertility rates,” the newspaper writes.

The newspaper notes that to ensure population growth, the birth rate must be 2.1 children per woman, while in 2021 the global birth rate was 2.23. However, the authors of the article in the Lancet point to a stable downward trend in this value — if in 1950 the world fertility rate was 4.84, then by 2050 it is predicted to be 1.83, and by 2100 — 1.59.
According to the Lancet, the leaders in terms of fertility in the world in 2021 were Chad, Niger and Somalia, where they were 6.99, 6.97 and 6.54, respectively. In Russia, the UK and the US, fertility rates in 2021 were 1.48, 1.49 and 1.64 respectively. At the same time, in Russia, the birth rate is projected to decrease to 1.33 by 2050, and to 1.21 by 2100.

The director of population sciences at the University of Oxford, Melinda Mills, told the newspaper that given trends in population decline and aging, a “reorganization” of key elements of society would be required.

«From food security… to a country's infrastructure itself, population structure affects infrastructure such as schools, housing, transportation, health care and pensions,» Mills said.

One of the co-authors of the study, a leading researcher at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, Natalia Bhattacharjee, warns of the emergence of “competition for migrants” due to population decline: