'She is the only politician from either party that working-class voters say is someone they like.'
One is a suave Oxford-educated lawyer from North London, the other is a loquacious working-class northerner prone to getting into trouble for speaking his mind.
We could be talking here about Tony Blair and John Prescott, but this description also fits the current leadership of the Labor Party, Sir Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner.
And in a week when Ms. Rayner finds herself under more scrutiny than ever before because of controversy over the sale of her home, she is being asked the same questions that were once asked about Prescott: whether she is an invaluable asset to party or a hopeless liability?
Ms Rayner brings an authenticity to the leadership of the Labor Party that none of her colleagues can match. While the party's image-makers like to remind people of her journey from single teenage mother to shadow deputy prime minister, her appeal to the general public lies in her perceived integrity, polls show.
Polls say she brings flair. to politics at a time when mainstream party leaders are as sharp as mashed potatoes, and her flat Stockport vowels are a useful counterbalance to Sir Keir's lawyerly speech.
So far, her unique brand has proven impervious to such controversies as that she called Tori «scum.» It was the verbal equivalent of John (now Lord) Prescott punching a member of the public in 2001, to which Blair (now Sir Tony) responded with a shrug, saying: «John is John.»
Angela Rayner with John Prescott in a photo she posted on social media to wish him a happy birthday in May 2023 < p>Simply saying «Angela is Angela» will not be enough to alleviate the crisis facing the current deputy leader of the Labor Party, as the sale of her home is under police scrutiny and her popularity with the public could plummet in a general election year. a real danger.
James Frain, founding partner of the policy research agency Public First, says Rayner has been an «insanely huge asset» to Labor so far, but her popularity could be damaged irrevocably if voters decide that she is not as honest and straightforward as they thought. she was.
He said: “Four or five years ago she got a mixed reaction in focus groups, some people really liked her and some didn't, but two or three years ago she started they are often brought up in focus groups without prompting, especially from those who can be classified as swing working-class voters.
“They described her as honest, authentic and decidedly different, and even now she is the only politician of any party whom working-class voters describe as someone who they like it.”
However, things can change depending on the situation. the results of a police investigation into her financial affairs.
To summarize: Ms Rayner, who bought her council house in 2007 under the Right to Buy scheme, sold it in 2015 and made a profit of £48,000 pounds. . She says it was her primary residence, which means she doesn't have to pay capital gains tax on the profits.
Angela Rayner made a £48,000 profit on her right to buy a council house
And that would have been the end of it had she not re-registered five years ago after marrying Mark Rayner. the birth of her two youngest children at his address, raising questions about whether it was in fact her primary residence.
If this were the case, her former council property would be a second home and would be subject to CGT liability as HMRC rules allow couples to claim only one property as their main home.
Ms Rayner , who became MP for Ashton-under-Lyne the same year she sold the property, said that, like anyone else, she simply put her house up for sale, hired a solicitor and estate agent and was unaware of the fact time HMRC rules.
Because tax issues arose, she says, she took the advice of a tax expert who «categorically stated that I should not pay capital gains tax.»
Sir Keir defended his deputy's decision not to publish the tax advice, saying he had «full confidence» in it.
Labor insiders The party says Sir Keir has now concluded Ms Rayner is a net asset. Photo: Eddie Mulholland
Greater Manchester Police, which initially said Ms Rayner would not be investigated, is now looking into the case again and has appointed a detective chief inspector to review the case after Conservative deputy chairman James Daly complained officers had failed to contact witnesses and didn't check it. in the relevant documents.
Regardless of the outcome, Sir Keir cannot sack Ms Rayner as deputy leaders are directly elected by Labor Party members. Whether he wants this is a more interesting question.
Sir Keir did sack Ms Rayner as Labour's campaign co-ordinator following the 2021 Hartlepool by-election, which saw the Conservatives take the seat from Labor by a landslide. .
There were even rumors that Ms. Rayner might challenge him for leadership. The following year she told the BBC that Sir Keir needed to give his speeches a «healthier quality», suggesting tensions were not so hidden.
Labor insiders say Sir Keir has now come to welcome Ms Rayner, whom he hopes to replace him at Prime Minister's Questions when Rishi Sunak is absent, and sees that, like Prescott before her, she is a valuable asset to him .
Deputy Labor Party leader Angela Rayner has been entrusted with sitting at Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in place of Sir Keir Starmer. Photo: Jessica Taylor/AFP via Getty Images
Ms. Rayner is far more popular than Prescott ever was. was, according to Frayne, more useful.
Firstly, Sir Tony was much more popular than Sir Keir and did not need support from some lumbering left winger.
Prescott's main role was to serve as a bridge between New Labor and Old Labour, especially the unionists who had always been suspicious of the privately educated Sir Tony and preferred to deal with the outspoken former salesman in the then MP for Kingston upon -Hull. East.
Rayner, by contrast, is a bridge between the north London party circuit that dominates Labor ideology and the Red Wall seats that defected to Boris Johnson's Tories in 2019 and which Sir Keir needs to win back.
Added to this is the fact that Sir Keir is not Sir Tony. It is no coincidence that Rayner's sudden surge in popularity has coincided with the era of Starmer and Sunak, two leaders who, for many voters, are so polite they are indistinguishable from each other.
Frain says: “Prescott was useful for communicating with the party machine, Rayner for communicating with the public. «Whether she will maintain her popularity depends on whether the issue surrounding her home affects the way people see her.
«Her appeal is not based on politics or anything ideological, but because , that she is seen as tough, honest and telling the truth, and if people decide that is no longer the case, there will be no going back.»
One person who knows how this works is Mr Sunak . During the pandemic, the public viewed him as honest, unusual and fresh as he presided over the furlough scheme, but his involvement in Partygate and controversy over his family's finances turned voters against him and his poll ratings never recovered.
< p>It appears that whether Ms Rayner's personal popularity will develop in the same way now appears to depend on Greater Manchester Police.
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