Cases of Covid-19 are continuing to rise rapidly in England, multiple studies have found, with as many as one in 170 people infected with coronavirus.
The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics, based on results from more than 127,000 participants over the past two weeks, suggest that between 25 September and 1 October about one in 240 people in the community in England had Covid-19, with about 17,200 new cases per day.
The ONS figures suggest a sharp uptick from the previous week, when it was estimated that between 18 and 24 September, about one in every 470 people in the community in England had Covid-19, with about 8,400 new infections a day.
Covid cases and deaths today: coronavirus UK map
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“The estimate shows the number of infections has increased rapidly in recent weeks,” the ONS said.
Prevalence was highest among regions including the north-east, north-west, and Yorkshire and the Humber, and highest in older teenagers and young adults.
“The second-highest rates are seen in the secondary school – age group,” the ONS added.
The finding that prevalence is continuing to rise chimes with the latest results from the React 1 study, led by Imperial College, London, that uses swabs from about 120,000 to 160,000 randomly selected people in England across 315 local authority areas each month to track the spread of coronavirus.
The team previously reported that the fourth round of the study, conducted between the end of August and beginning of September, suggested prevalence of the virus in England was doubling about every eight days, with an R figure of 1.7.
However, early results from the fifth round, released last week, suggested that while cases continue to rise, the rate of increase may have slowed, with an R of 1.1 and about 0.55% of the population infected.
Now the team say analysis of the data for the entire fifth round, based on swabs collected between 18 September and 5October, confirms confirms cases are still rising.
“Our estimate today is that 0.6% of the population, or 60 per 10,000, have [coronavirus] amongst the general population,” said Prof Paul Elliott, an author of the report from Imperial College London. “Even since the previous report, things have gone up even more.”
Prof Steven Riley, another author of the work from Imperial College London, said the latest figures confirmed that there had been a slight slowdown in the rise in infections, with the new data suggesting the R value for England was now 1.16, with a doubling time of about 29 days.
Timeline What the UK government said on Covid testing
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1 September 2020
Boris Johnson
“Not only are we getting the pandemic under control, with deaths down and hospital admissions way, way down, but we will continue to tackle it, with local lockdowns and with our superlative test-and-trace system.”
9 September 2020
Boris Johnson
“NHS Test and Trace is doing a heroic job, and today most people get an in-person test result within 24 hours, and the median journey is under 10 miles if someone has to take a journey to get one … [To Keir Starmer] We make the tough calls – all he does is sit on the sidelines and carp.”
9 September 2020
Boris Johnson
[On the ‘moonshot’ proposal for mass, near-instant testing:] “We are hopeful this approach will be widespread by the spring and, if everything comes together, it may be possible even for challenging sectors like theatres to have life much closer to normal before Christmas.”
16 September 2020
Boris Johnson
“We don’t have enough testing capacity now because, in an ideal world, I would like to test absolutely everybody that wants a test immediately … Yes, there’s a long way to go, and we will work night and day to ensure that we get there.”
17 September 2020
Matt Hancock
“Of course there is a challenge in testing … We have sent tests to all schools to make sure that they have tests available. But of course I also recognise the challenges in getting hold of tests … Tests are available, even though it is a challenge to get hold of them.”
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Riley said the data suggested restrictions, including the “rule of six” may have had some effect, but stressed that cases were still rising.
“It’s a national epidemic, it is still growing,” he said, noting the React-1 study suggested the prevalence across England was about one in 170 people, with 45,000 new infections each day.
While Elliott noted that prevalence remained highest among 18- to 24-year-olds, infections have risen across all age groups. And geographic differences remain, with the highest rates in north-west and north-east England, and Yorkshire and the Humber.
The results come as the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) revealed its estimate for the R figure is between 1.2 and 1.5 for both England and the UK as a whole, and is above 1 in all regions of England.
It adds that the number of new infections in the UK is growing by between 4% and 9% every day, and could be growing by as much as 11% every day in the east of England.
However, the team behind the figures warn the time lag in the data used means the figures best represent the situation a few weeks ago.
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