Smoke rises from the buildings in this aerial view of Bakhmut, the site of heavy fighting between Ukrainian and Russian troops. Photo: Libkos/AP
Expectations for Ukraine's long-awaited spring counteroffensive are «overheated,» the country's defense minister warned on Thursday.
Oleksiy Reznikov spoke of Ukraine's success in defending against Russian invasion and regaining territory in past offensives, led to speculation about further success.
«Definitely overheated — everyone wants another victory,» he told the RBC-Ukraine website. “Before, we did not believe in victory. Previously, we wanted Ukraine to survive at least minimally, to retain at least some part of Ukraine.
“But when the Ukrainian armed forces showed success, everyone believed in victory.”
Mr. Reznikov said Kiev would need further Western support, adding: “This is not a sprint distance. It's not 100m, not 60m, and not 30m.
“When I realized that this was not a sprint, but a marathon, I said to myself – wait, in order to run the last 195 meters of the marathon distance, you need to hold out until then 42 kilometers.”
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Ukrainian officials have long said they are planning new operations to liberate land seized by Russia since Vladimir Putin ordered an invasion last February. The details of the operation are being kept secret and are reportedly known only to a small group of advisers to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The counteroffensive is expected to focus on southern Ukraine towards the occupied Crimean peninsula illegally annexed by Moscow in 2014.
Western analysts suggest that Kiev may also attack contested cities in eastern Ukraine. Regions of the Donbass, such as Bakhmut, Vuhledar and Avdiivka, which Moscow spent huge resources trying to capture.
A recently leaked U.S. intelligence assessment of the upcoming operation suggests that Kiev may «significantly fall short» of its objectives because its forces are likely to find it difficult to sustain the offensive.
A document published as part of the so-called Discord leaks. said «Ukraine's persistent shortcomings in training and munitions supplies are likely to stall progress and exacerbate casualties during the offensive.»
But in a break from those assessments, the US commander in Europe made it clear on Wednesday that Washington now less worried about the prospect of depleting Ukraine's reserves.
«More than 98 percent of the combat vehicles are already there,» said Gen. Christopher Cavoli, who is also NATO's Supreme Allied Commander. “I am absolutely confident that we have provided them with the material they need and we will continue to work to keep them going.”
< p>Ukraine has received hundreds of modern battle tanks, armored personnel carriers and artillery howitzers to ensure an offensive against well-entrenched Russian positions. “The Ukrainians are in a good position,” General Cavoli added.
NATO Allies have equipped at least nine of the 12 new Ukrainian brigades ahead of the long-announced offensive, bringing in more than 230 tanks and 1,550 armored personnel carriers. , according to Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General.
“This will give Ukraine a strong position to continue seizing the occupied territories,” he said at a press conference on Thursday.
Ukraine is expected to that he would launch not one large-scale offensive, but smaller, targeted efforts to break the Russian defensive positions at several points along the front line, Western officials said.
Justin Crump, Sibillin, intelligence and intelligence firm geopolitical risk said that targeting Bakhmut, southern Ukraine, and threatening Crimea could be “effective.”
“The defeat of the best Russian military and Wagner in a fraction of the time it took Russia to push is a powerful message if its can be delivered,” he added.
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