Rishi Sunak at the Home Office Joint Control Room in Dover. He has made the fight against illegal entry into the UK one of his top five priorities. Photo: Kirsty Wigglesworth/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. 1.1 million foreign workers and students are projected in 2024 if ministers do not act.
The Telegraph may report that an official document sent to Downing Street last year warned of predicted spikes in net migration and outlined a number of policy measures. opportunities for the Conservatives to deliver on their promise in the 2019 manifesto and lower the “total numbers.”
The 12-page analysis predicts that the number of work and study visa applications could increase by 40% in three years to 2024-2025, when more than 700,000 international students and 320,000 skilled workers will arrive this year.
That will come as the Tories face an election in which Britain's post-Brexit control of its borders will be a major campaign issue.
The revelation came after a record 504,000 votes. net migration data released last summer, with expert forecasts that net migration could rise even more, hitting a record 700,000 in the year ending December, and possibly even 997,000 when official data is released in two weeks .
While officials warn of legal migration, Rishi Sunak has made fighting illegal entry into the UK one of his top five priorities
On Tuesday, he will tell fellow leaders at the Council of Europe that the fight against small boats is not just a British problem.
He will say that illegal migration is putting unbearable pressure on countries across the continent and that they need to “cooperate across borders» to deal with the humanitarian catastrophe caused by illegal immigration.
On Monday, Swella Braverman warned that, in addition to preventing «illegal migration,» the government «should not lose sight of the importance of controlling legal migration.»
Suella Braverman pushes for tighter controls on legal migration. Credit: Victoria Jones/PA Wire
The Home Secretary also warned that «an ill-advised pursuit of multiculturalism» coupled with identity politics is a recipe for disaster.
Ms Braverman is pushing for tighter controls on legal migration and is believed to be in favor of raising the wage threshold for skilled workers, currently set at £26,600. This is 20% below the UK average wage of £33,280.
There is thought to be division in the cabinet on how to deal with migration and some ministers have softened on the influx of foreign workers , believing it could help stimulate the economy, while others are determined to cut the total.
Titled “Network Migration Briefing August 2022,” the paper warns that there is a “limited window” for making changes, as any new policies will “take time” to implement.
Migrant Slide Embed < p> It is clear that the analysis by officials of the Ministry of the Interior was prepared during the Tory campaign and is ready to receive any new Minister of the Interior in September.
Sources said it was sent to number 10, but a spokesman for the prime minister denied knowing it. “That was before the current prime minister came,” one source said.
It outlines 12 “political levers” that can be used to reduce net migration, including limiting immigration routes, phasing out some special visa schemes, raising the wage threshold for skilled workers required to enter the UK, and limiting the right of dependent workers or students to enter the UK.
However, according to government sources, the only policy close to being implemented is a ban on one-year undergraduates bringing dependents with them. The report foreshadows potential Whitehall battles due to possible reprisals.
It states: «There is strong pressure from across Whitehall to significantly increase further visa issuance for groups that can increase net migration (eg caregivers, broadband workers, certain types of students).
p>
«However, to ensure that the manifesto's commitment to reduce the total number is met, consideration needs to be given to whether some restrictions are required on the use of the [skilled worker point system].»
While the issuance of Ukrainian, Hong Kong and Afghan visas is projected to decline, the number of student visa applications will more than double, from 300,000 in 2019-2020 to 720,000 in 2024-2025, and the number of work visas will increase from 150,000 to more than 300,000.
Even these figures may be underestimated based on the evidence already published.
“Upward pressure” on immigration
The report acknowledges that it is not possible to make «reliable» projections of net migration — the number entering minus the number leaving the UK — but suggests there will be «increasing pressure» on immigration and post-pandemic «uncertainty» over whether there will be as many Britons how much It is expected that after Brexit there will be a temptation to emigrate.
He proposed two options: the first was to “keep moving” to reduce net migration with a “collectively agreed policy change” to reach that goal by 2024.
It said: “This may include restricting some routes, changing thresholds (skills/salary), restricting dependents and/or reducing the attractiveness of a visa for graduates.”
1205 UK Total Net Migration
In the second case, ministers will argue that the UK «controls» immigration and «makes the choice», offering safe and legal routes for refugees and supporting the labor market, universities and the NHS.
“A strong narrative will be needed to explain why, especially if the labor market starts to shrink,” he warns.
Pros and cons of various policies
The report then carried out a detailed analysis of the pros and cons of various policies based on their impact on the population and the economy as a whole.
“Studies show that factors that encourage people to move to the UK (managed migration) are: relative income differences, networks linking countries of destination and countries of origin, language skills, proximity between countries,” the report says.
«As long as they last, demand for British visas will be strong.»
Options proposed to limit migration include abolishing the two-year graduate visa, which can leave overseas students unemployed in the UK after completing a first degree, and reintroducing the requirement for skilled workers to hold a degree rather than the equivalent of an A level.
< p>A Home Office spokesman said: “The public rightly expects us to control our borders and we remain committed to reducing net migration over time while ensuring we have the skills our economy needs. "
On Monday, the Office for National Statistics reported that migrants are more likely to have degrees than the British.
Less than one in three, 31%, Britons According to an analysis of census data, in In 2021, adults of working age who were born in the UK had a tertiary education. This contrasted sharply with the 44 per cent share of those born outside the UK.
British residents born in Nigeria are more than twice as likely to have a tertiary education than those born in Nigeria. Great Britain, judging by the numbers.
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