US warns North Korea could be planning ICBM test ‘in near future’ in test for Biden

North Korea could be planning to flight test an upgraded inter-continental ballistic missile [ICBM] “in the near future,” a senior US military official has warned, in what would be the regime’s first serious policy challenge for Joe Biden.

The warning, by Air Force Gen. Glen VanHerck, who as head of the Northern Command is in charge of defending the continental US, appeared to be based on North Korea’s unveiling at a parade in October of what would be its largest ICBM yet, and not on specific intelligence about an imminent launch.

His comments came as US secretary of state Antony Blinken and defence secretary Lloyd Austin began a visit to Japan and South Korea to discuss security, and appears to reflect concerns that the North could be planning to raise the stakes in its nuclear diplomacy with Washington.

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North Korea has not tested a nuclear weapon or ICBM in more than three years, but has continued production of nuclear weapons, improved the design of its ICBM and tested a number of smaller missiles.

VanHerck said Pyongyang’s “considerably larger and presumably more capable” ICBM further increased the threat to the US, adding that he had confidence in US missile defence.

Noting that the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, had released himself from a moratorium on testing over a year ago, VanHerck said in written testimony to the senate armed services committee: “The North Korean regime has also indicated that it is no longer bound by the unilateral nuclear and ICBM testing moratorium announced in 2018, suggesting that Kim Jong-un may begin flight testing an improved ICBM design in the near future.”

He also warned of the “alarming success” North Korea had achieved in demonstrating its ability to threaten the US mainland with nuclear-armed ICBMs.

Analysts said that while an ICBM test was not out of the question, tests involving smaller missiles were more likely.

Jenny Town, director of 38 North, a US-based website that tracks North Korea, said she believed the regime would be more likely to restart test launches with shorter-range missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

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“It seems more likely that if North Korea is going to start testing missiles again, it will start with ones where testing has been almost normalised,” Town said.

After three years of nuclear diplomacy under Donald Trump failed to make any progress on dismantling North Korea’s nuclear capability, Biden was recently given an indication of the difficulties inherent in negotiating with Kim.

Earlier this week, the White House confirmed reports that the Biden administration had tried to reach out to North Korea in mid-February but had not received a response.

Kim’s influential sister, Kim Yo-jong, was quoted by North Korean state media this week as issuing a warning to the US over its ongoing joint military drills with the South.

Kim Yo-jong, who has made several colourful interventions on foreign policy, said that if the Biden administration “wants to sleep in peace for coming four years, it had better refrain from causing a stink at its first step”, according to the KCNA news agency. “War drills and hostility can never go with dialogue and cooperation.”

Blinken declined to comment on the warning, telling reporters: “We’re looking at whether various additional pressure measures could be effective, whether there are diplomatic paths that make sense … all of that is under review.”

The joint US-South Korea drills began last week, but have been limited to computer simulations due to the coronavirus pandemic and an apparent desire to build diplomatic bridges with the North.