Sir Keir Starmer: “The road to the best of the UK starts right here and runs from Devon to Dundee, Swansea. to Southampton.” Image Credit & Copyright: Gareth Fuller/PA
“Is the rest of middle England 'Starmer's Land'?” Sir Keir Starmer seemed a little unnerved by the question on Friday morning. “This is Labour's land, this is Labor's land,” he replied hesitantly.
There is no doubt that Sir Keir and his Labor Party are celebrating a successful round of local elections in England after the party has made headway and the Tories suffered heavy losses.
And – yes – Labor has invaded middle England, the sort of seats the party must win to stand a chance of forming a government at the next general election. < /p> Chopper's Politics Podcast
But is it enough to immediately seize power in the next general election? So far, the results show he will be tight and will need a breakthrough (which is by no means guaranteed) in Scotland, where voters did not go to the polls yesterday.
The sample math is hard. There are currently 196 Labor MPs. Sir Keir needs another 130 to get a simple majority (although that would be 124, not including Sinn Féin MPs who don't attend parliament and speakers).
Labor strategists will be concerned that the kind of surge led by Tony Blair that saw the local elections in 1995 before the convincing landslide in 1997 has not yet taken place. Photo: John Stillwell/PA. supporters at party headquarters at lunchtime. “The road to a better Britain starts right here and stretches from Devon to Dundee, from Swansea to Southampton,” he said.
But party strategists will be concerned that the kind of surge that has been seen, led by Tony Blair, in the local elections of 1995 before the convincing failure of 1997, still has not happened.
Opinion polling guru Sir John Curtis said: “At least in our sample, Labor didn't get more votes than last year, so it's not the same result Blair was getting before 1997.”
Not everyone agrees with Sir John. An analysis by Electoral Calculus for The Telegraph shows Sir Keir is on track to win at the Blairite level with a majority of 178 seats.
He predicts Labor's 37 percent (414 MPs) vote share against 22 percent of the Tories (132 deputies). The Liberal Democrats will get 15% (45 deputies).
Sir Ed Davey and the Liberal Democrats are already apparently licking their lips at the prospect of forming a coalition with Labor after the next general election. Photo: Finnbarr Webster/Getty
So the question of whether Sir Keir will have the same impact as Mr Blair has not yet been clarified.
< p>The Liberal Democrats have noticed and apparently already are licking their lips at the prospect of forming a coalition with Labor after the next general election.
I noticed the significant pause of the leader of the Liberal Democrats, Sir Ed Davey, when he was LBC's Nick Ferrari asked if he would form a coalition with Labor after the next general election, and this is very telling.
It is important to emphasize the local nature of the results. In Plymouth, for example, it looks like the Tories have lost after the embarrassing tree massacre.
But there are themes. In the north of England, the so-called red wall seats seem to be the voters who first supported the Tories under Boris Johnson in 2019 are switching back to Labor.
And in the south, the rest. Those who are tired of the Tories are returning to the Liberal Democrats, who continue to strengthen their positions in St. Albans and elsewhere.
Rishi Sunak's response so far seemed lackluster, reflecting a difficult night, even compared to the last time when these places were contested at the height of the Brexit wars in 2019.
Lord Cruddas: No party can succeed without unity. It reminds me of Mike Tyson who said everyone can have a plan until you punch him in the face.” Photo: Eddie Mulholland
The loss of councilors is eating into local party structures, and this will be felt in the next general election. Mr. Sunak will look with dismay at the lost councils in Hertsmere, South Gloucestershire, Welwyn Hatfield and Tamworth.
The best the prime minister could do was to say that he was continuing his five year ambition. when he turned up blurry-eyed outside Conservative headquarters this morning.
People want us to focus on their priorities,” he said. To which voters seem to yell back at him: “Well, then let's go.”
All is not lost for the Tories. Take Stoke on the Trent. Labor won the council with the support of the independents. The Tories only lost one seat on the council.
Sir John Curtis said: “Labor will have the biggest lead over the Conservatives in terms of votes than at any time since 2010, but it will be as much because the Conservatives are lagging behind. as the Laborites rise up.”
And the Conservative MPs I tried were phlegmatic. They want Mr. Sunak to get back to his roots more boldly in what Conservative voters like. One of the MPs wanted the prime minister to devote more time to the rural voters, who, he said, sat idly by yesterday (“How many times has Rishi been to Darlington, Teesside and Redcar?” he asked plaintively.)
“ Back to Conservative principles'
Another Tory MP said that Sunak had to go back to Conservative principles “in terms of taxation and the migration crisis.” While a third blamed the poor performance on the lingering fury over last year's chaos when Mr. Johnson and Liz Truss were ousted. “Voters are moving on, but they have not forgotten or forgiven,” he said.
In the party, some Conservative activists are still unhappy with how Conservative MPs forced Mr. Sunak on them. Some will take out their anger at a rally organized by the Conservative Democratic Organization (CDO) next weekend (Speakers by Priti Patel, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nadine Dorries).
Interestingly, none of the Tory MPs are talking about the return of Mr. Johnson, as many thought it would happen only a few months ago after the return of the locals.
Even Thonor's donor Lord Cruddas of Shoreditch, who is behind the CDO, is not plotting Mr. Johnson's return. He just wants Mr. Sunak to listen more to the “disenfranchised” members.
Lord Cruddas said, “No party can succeed without unity. It reminds me of Mike Tyson who said anyone can have a plan until you punch them in the face.”
In a few hours, politics will come to a halt as Conservative, Labor and Liberal Democrat MPs and councilors will properly focus on the Coronation.
But the aftermath of local elections will begin again in earnest at Westminster next week. Meanwhile, Mr. Sunak, Sir Keir, and Sir Ed have a lot to think about.
Listen to the analysis of the results of the electoral calculus' Martin Baxter and Tony Diver of the Sunday Telegraph on Chopper's Politics, The Telegraph's weekly political podcast, using the audio player at the top of this article, or on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast app.
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