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    Politics

    Immigration is a fault line of millions that divides the Conservative Party.

    Net migration could reach one million when announced in two weeks' time By Jeff J. Mitchell/Getty Images Europe

    Immigration has long been a conservative fault line, but news that net migration could reach a million when new data is released in two weeks seems to widen the chasm.

    Forget stopping boats, could Rishi Sunak be about to fall into the void due to the number of people entering the UK legally?

    On one side of the Tory border is Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, who claims that higher immigration benefits the economy by increasing GDP because historically the vast majority of migrants have been of working age, meaning that their participation rate is higher than that of the wider population.

    In the spring budget, he opened the door to more migrants by adding jobs including plasterers and carpenters to the list of jobs in short supply, making it easier for some workers to come to the UK.

    His mindset is in line with that of his predecessor, George Osborne, who has repeatedly clashed with both David Cameron and Theresa May over his desire to provide more visas to the Chinese in the so-called “Golden Era”, as well as his desire to completely eliminate student visas from immigration data. .

    Naturally, the former chancellor was horrified when Mr Cameron, fearing an exodus of Conservative voters in the UKIP, promised in 2014 to reduce net migration from “hundreds of thousands” annually to “just tens of thousands”. After promising to eliminate fake colleges, cut unemployment benefits and stop advertising jobs abroad, he criticized Labor's “failed” immigration system in an op-ed for The Telegraph, writing: there were also over five million people of working age receiving unemployment benefits.”

    Non-Returning Workers

    However, almost a decade has passed, and now this epithet can be applied to conservatives. As the government struggles to convince workers who quit their jobs during the pandemic to return, the number of working-age people on benefits now stands at 5.2 million, according to the Department of Labor and Pensions, and net migration hit a record 504,000 people last year.< /p>

    Official projections released by the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) in March predict that net migration to the UK is likely to average over 240,000 people a year between 2026 and 2027, well above the figure of 177,000 that Cameron gave, showing that immigration is “completely non-existent”. control.

    However, these figures, in turn, surpassed the analysis of migration experts suggesting that the latter figure could reach 997,000 when the Office for National Statistics releases data on May 25.

    This surge is due to the continued sharp increase in the number non-EU migrants entering the UK to study, work or flee conflict or oppression after Brexit ended freedom of movement for workers from the European Union.

    But if net migration hits a maximum estimate of one million, that would be the equivalent of four years of net migration before Brexit.

    On the warpath

    Which explains why graduates like Suella Braverman, who vowed that Brexit would allow us to “ take back control” over our borders, now on the warpath.

    Her call at the National Conservative Conference on Monday for a reduction in net migration so Britain doesn't forget how to “do something for ourselves” speaks to right-wing parties' fears that immigration could cost the Tories the next general election, not least after losing more 1,000 councilors in recent local elections.

    The Home Secretary pushed for limits on the number of dependents international students can bring to the UK after a sevenfold increase from 2019. students. The remaining half was intended for Ukrainians, Hong Kongers, other refugees and people arriving on family visas.

    However, the package is believed to have been softened after resistance from Education Secretary Gillian Keegan. On Sunday, Grant Shapps, Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, said he was “relaxed” on the numbers, saying “I'm pretty proud of our immigration record.”

    The split in the cabinet is such that some ministers are now also calling for an increase in the £26,000 minimum wage required for foreign work visas, deeming it too low, though no hard proposals have been prepared. The final decision now rests with Mr. Sunak.

    Will this make him prime minister or destroy him? According to Professor Matthew Goodwin of the University of Kent, although the electorate has become “more positive” about immigration after Brexit, “this does not mean that the vast majority do not want to reduce the overall volume of immigration into the country.” He argues that voters felt “cheated” by successive governments on migration rates and the level of change mass immigration brought to the UK. , hoping it will be significantly less than the bill.

    Whatever the final number, however, the scale is unprecedented. Since members of his senior staff are divided on this issue, this may be a bigger problem for the prime minister than the 45,000 people who illegally arrived by boat last year.

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