According to Survation's analysis, Jeremy Hunt will lose his seat in South West Surrey if current poll trends continue. Photo: Jordan Pettitt/PA
The Conservatives face a rout in their rural areas that could see Jeremy Hunt and Jacob Rees-Mogg lose their seats in the next election, polls show.
This comes amid warning that the party is losing support in the countryside “after years of economic neglect.”
The Country Land & The Business Association (CLA) last month commissioned Survation to survey 1,017 adults living in England's 100 most rural districts.
The survey showed that Tory support among local residents fell 18 points after the 2019 general election, in while Labor jumped 16 points. the parties are almost head to head: Conservatives make up 41% and Labor 36%.
The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, scored 13% (three points down from 2019) and the Greens 5% (up two points). “Other” parties gained 4% (three points behind). Of the 100 most rural seats in England, Tories currently hold 96.
However, according to Survation's analysis, if the poll results were reproduced in the next election, the Conservatives would lose 21 seats and Labor would take 18, and Liberal Democrats – three.
Among the displaced will be Mr. Hunt. The Chancellor will lose his South West Surrey seat, which has been Conservative since its inception in 1983, to the Liberal Democrats.
Other cabinet ministers predicted to lose their seats will be Labor and Pensions Minister Mel Stride in Central Devon; Transport Minister Mark Harper at the Forest of Dean; and Culture Minister Lucy Fraser, who will be narrowly defeated by Labor in southeast Cambridgeshire.
The Tories could be ousted
Other senior Tories who could be ousted include Mr Rees-Mogg, the former business secretary , and former Secretary of Defense Liam Fox, who are predicted to lose to Labor in their seats in Somerset.
The CLA said the poll revealed a shift in the political landscape that showed Tories “losing Village Wall loyalty after years of economic neglect”. for rural residents as a particular area of discontent.
A MPs report from the All Party Parliamentary Group on Rural Power recently found that due to a lack of affordable housing, inadequate electricity infrastructure and poor connectivity, rural communities are spending 10 to 20 percent more on everyday goods such as fuel, despite wages. 7.5% lower than their city counterparts.
'Feel left out'
Mark Tufnell, president of the CLA, said: rewrite the electoral map. In 2024, it may be the turn of the village.
“There is a simple truth: no political party has currently shown to understand, let alone share the aspirations of rural communities.”
He added: “An outdated planning regime is holding back rural business, lack affordable housing pushes families out, outdated infrastructure that limits the potential of entrepreneurs, all have a devastating effect.
“Any party that wants to develop a robust and ambitious plan for the development of the rural economy will receive significant support. Any party that wants to treat the countryside as a “museum” will be punished.”
The survey showed that 69% of the county's residents believe that the government is not doing enough to cover the costs. -the crisis of life in rural communities, and only 17% believe the opposite.
Respondents were divided on the issue of housing construction: 44% said they supported the construction of additional houses in their community, while 46% opposed .
However, 44% believe that planning reform will help stimulate the growth of rural communities, compared to 26% who believe it will not.
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