Vladimir Putin faces a daring Ukrainian offensive. leading a negative shadow war on the territory of Russia. It's true: in fact, this war started almost immediately after Russia invaded Ukraine.
Reporting in Russia is subject to state control, but it's hard to keep people from noticing events like big fires and explosions.< /p>
In the weeks after Russian troops entered Ukraine, such fires raged and objects exploded on the Russian side of the border.
Back in April 2022, Ukrainian officials denied that Kiev was responsible for the warehouse fire with fuel near Belgorod, and it was assumed that Russian separatists seeking to create a «Belgorod People's Republic» could have caused the fire.
Later that month, the Russian border regions of Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, and Voronezh all raised their terrorist threat status.
Explosions, fires and power outages began in the border region.
As the summer approached, Russia abandoned its disastrous attempts to capture Kiev and Kharkov and withdrew its troops to its territory along the entire northern border. Defeated Russian forces have mostly relocated to the south to reinforce the invasion there.
The Ukrainian military is preparing a tank, at a position near the front-line town of Bakhmut. Photo: DIMITAR DILKOFF/AFP via Getty Images
This left over 1,000 km of the Russian-Ukrainian border, from Luhansk to Belarus, only very lightly defended by the Russians. It has been somewhat fortified and is increasingly protected by minefields and patrolled by drones, but remains permeable.
Mystery Lights
Ever since Russia retreated, her frontier provinces have been blazing with flames. The destruction is almost always reported in the Russian media as the result of cross-border artillery shelling or airstrikes: but it is clear that there are groups of saboteurs operating abroad.
It also seems plausible that there are at least a few Ukrainian covert operatives and/or disgruntled Russians working inside the Motherland.
Sabotage occurred in the railway systems of Belarus and Russia. So-called «mystery fires» break out in Russia after the invasion, often far from the border areas. In April 2022, a research institute of the Russian Aerospace Forces burned down in Tver, northwest of Moscow, killing several people.
Another major fire broke out the next day in an aerospace park, also under Moscow, and the following month there were fires and explosions in Moscow itself. In August, a car bombing in Moscow killed Darya Dugina, daughter of Russian ultranationalist philosopher Alexander Dugin, an important ally of Putin.
Since then, the mysterious lights have continued to burn.
Meanwhile, on the border, Ukrainians have steadily become bolder. In March of this year, the Russian media received reports of saboteurs in Bryansk, who not only planted explosives or set fire to them, but also engaged in firefights with local law enforcement agencies and the Russian Guard, internal security forces, and took hostages. The shadow war was getting hotter.
Nerves of steel
What is all this for?
The somewhat denied struggle within Russia is strategically important to Ukrainians: it is designed to convince Putin to withdraw troops from a full-scale war in southeastern Ukraine.
Success in this is likely a vital prerequisite for a long-debated Ukrainian counter-offensive this year . It is well known that Zelensky and his generals, demonstrating «nerves of steel,» as one high-ranking American officer recently put it, managed to assemble a large strike force in reserve.
The Ukrainian high command resisted the temptation to pour in reinforcements during the fierce fighting at Bakhmut and elsewhere, and has built up an idle force of up to 20 heavy brigades.
These Ukrainian forces are heavily armed with Western tanks and other powerful weapons. He has well-trained and battle-hardened troops who know they are fighting to free their countrymen from the now well-known horrors of Russian occupation: random murders, rapes, torture and mass disappearances in the Gulag.
The troops of the strike group have rested from the meat grinder on the front line and will be motivated and ready for battle.
But they have a problem.
The Western Front now runs along the lower reaches of the Dnieper, a large obstacle, the width of which is often reaches many kilometers: practically impassable for a rapid tank attack.
0406 ukraine map
The Eastern Front, 50 km south of Donetsk, is also problematic, since there is a Russian border behind it, where Ukrainians must stop, but Russians do not.
The Ukrainian attack would more or less take place somewhere between Zaporozhye and Donetsk, against the so-called «land bridge», where a penetration of less than 100 km would have brought Ukrainian tanks to the shores of the Sea of Azov.
< p>If they could achieve this, they would cut off the entire western half of the Russian invasion forces from almost any support, except for that which went through the Kerch bridges to the Crimea. The Ukrainians have already managed to hit these bridges once.
It would be a turning point if it could be carried out.
The trouble is that the Russians can also read maps, and the length of the corresponding section of the front barely reaches 150 km. Satellite photos show that the Russians have built several massive lines of fortifications there, and it is clear that Russian troops and artillery will be heavily concentrated in the area.
Chances of success
Breaking these lines will not be easy. To have any chance of success, the Ukrainians desperately need to remove all possible Russian soldiers and equipment from the land bridge.
Perhaps this can be done, because Russia does not seem to have strategic reserves.
p>
«We now estimate that 97% of the Russian army, the entire Russian army, is in Ukraine,» British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told the BBC in February.
If Russia needs troops elsewhere, it will have to withdraw all or most of them from the front in Ukraine, which will likely mean that at least some soldiers and equipment will come from the defense of the land bridge.
That is why Ukrainians are so eager to create the impression that the exposed 1000 km+ borders to the north and east, along the Russian border regions of Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk, need to be protected by something more substantial than the FSB (Federal Security Service)and the Russian Guard. p>
Last month, the Belgorod region was captured by a small detachment of armored vehicles from Ukraine, which occupied part of the region for a couple of days.
The invaders claimed that they were from the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Legion of Freedom of Russia, and not from the armed forces of Ukraine.
volunteer corps reported attacks in the border region of Belgorod. Photo: SERGEY BOBOK/AFP via Getty Images
These groups are said to be made up of Russians opposed to Vladimir Putin. Aide to the President of Ukraine Mikhail Podolyak said they acted on their own initiative.
It turned out that the Freedom of Russia legion at least had friends in Russia — or perhaps friends of friends — because during their invasion they posted videos of white-blue-white flags of the Russian opposition attached to balloons hovering in the sky over Moscow. The Legion uses this flag, as do anti-war protesters in Russia, and it is often seen as a symbol of opposition to the Putin regime.
When asked where the alleged freedom fighters got their heavy equipment from, Podolyak cheekily replied: “As you know, tanks are sold in any Russian military store.”
Many took this as a reference to Vladimir Putin's remarks in 2014, when «little green men» in Russian uniforms without insignia played an important role in the takeover of Crimea. The Kremlin's line then was that these were locals who wanted to be part of Russia and not be invaded by Russian troops. Putin said then: “You can go to the store and buy any uniform.”
Ukrainians again started talking about the “Belgorod People’s Republic”, referring to Russia’s annexation of eastern Donetsk and Lugansk in 2014, when militias often strangely well-equipped, rather like the forces that organized the invasion of Belgorod — unilaterally proclaimed independent «people's republics». ” there.
Ukraine's own militias crossed the border again in Belgorod last Friday, according to the Russians, with «up to two tank-reinforced mechanized infantry companies.» jpg» /> Shelling intensified in the border area of Belgorod last week Photo: press service of the Russian Defense Ministry
Meanwhile, on Monday evening, things were looking up. Explosions rocked Moscow as a fleet of drones attacked the city. The Russians said eight planes were involved, five of which were destroyed by Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile systems, and three by electronic warfare.
Russian sources with good social media connections say the drones was 30 or more. , and Muscovites told reporters about dozens of explosions.
At least some of the attacking drones certainly could have come all the way from Ukraine. Among the fleet were UJ-22s manufactured by the Ukrainian company Ukrjet. The UJ-22 is essentially a conventional gasoline-powered drone-controlled light aircraft that could fly from the Ukrainian border to Moscow in about four hours.
UJ-22 airborne drone
Russian official statements were very unpleasant. to state that Moscow's air defense system worked well, although Vladimir Putin acknowledged the existence of problems.
«In general, it is clear what needs to be done to increase the density of the capital's air defense systems,» he said. «And we will do just that.»
Terrifying embarrassment
The fact is that this attack was a terrifying embarrassment for the VKS, the VKS of Russia. Moscow must have the best and most powerful air defense system in Russia. When the vaunted new S-500 anti-aircraft missile entered service in 2021, it was the first regiment assigned to defend Moscow to receive it.
The S-500 and its predecessor, the S-400 and S-300, are heavy long-range systems designed to engage air targets hundreds of kilometers away. It is often said that their presence at any given location provides «Access Denial/Area Denial» (A2/AD): it is often assumed that, for example, S-300s and S-400s based in Kaliningrad could interfere with NATO air operations somewhere or higher. Poland or the Baltics.
Russian S-500 missile defense system
The Russian state news agency TASS boasted: “The S-500 air defense system is designed to destroy all possible means of air and space attack of a potential enemy in the entire range of altitudes and speeds.”< /p>
These ideas are currently being questioned. Obviously, there is some combination of altitude and speed that is achievable for a simple gasoline-powered light aircraft — an aircraft only slightly faster than a car — that the S-500 and its earlier versions cannot cope with.
Only if large rockets do not can shoot down the target, the Pantsir, the last weapon of the “point defense” comes into play: and even according to the Russians, the only missile capable of hitting the attacking drones was the Pantsir. /p>
During the defense of Kyiv, it turned out that American-made Patriot heavy interceptors work well. In the defense of Moscow, it turned out that the mighty Russian S-500 probably couldn't stop a World War I biplane.
In a sense, this is cruel. In fact, the Pantsir was built on purpose because it was known that the S-300 and later versions would fight low-flying attackers, no matter what TASS claimed.
This is due to the curvature of the Earth: ground-based radar will not be able to detect a low-flying attacker until he rises above the horizon, say, 50 km. As such, the Pantsir was built largely to protect S-300 and above installations from targets such as attacking cruise missiles or low-flying aircraft.
Nevertheless, this remains an almost unbelievably bad job by the Aerospace Forces. It only took a dozen S-500 radars to provide an overlapping environment around Moscow and detect incoming drones even at low altitude and away from the capital.
Map: Moscow, Russia attacking drones
A proper air defense effort would indeed see at least one Beriev A-50 airborne radar aircraft high above the city, giving it a hundreds of kilometers horizon.
This could detect incoming drones and transmit S-400 targets . and -500 batteries, even if their own radars couldn't see the intruders.
It is assumed that some types of S-400 missiles can hit targets over the horizon from a launch battery using their own radar homing heads.
The Russians have publicly stated that one such type has a 90 percent chance under such conditions to shoot down even a fast and highly maneuverable jet.In the case, even with the defense of Moscow itself, this technology had a zero success rate against the slowest of existing aircraft, which was not maneuvering at all.
Meanwhile, either Beriev does not work, or they are not available. This is not a big surprise since Russia is believed to have only nine A-50s in service. This has been suggested as a reason for the poor performance of the Russians in the air over Ukraine: the Berievs were kept for the air defense of the homeland. It now appears they are neither available nor effective for this.
It is also becoming clearer and clearer that the bold Russian boast about their heavy anti-aircraft missiles is not to be taken seriously, nor is much of their military .
This is the baseless West. concerns about A2/AD in the Baltic Sea.
But key questions remain unanswered.
Is Ukraine's shadow war working? How much have the Belgorod invasions and drone attacks in Moscow actually changed the picture? Will Vladimir Putin and his current commander of the war in Ukraine, Valery Gerasimov, withdraw troops and equipment from the land bridge and deploy them on the northern border? Will the Shells be returned from the front to the defense of Moscow, as Putin suggests?
Putin and Gerasimov can sit back knowing that Ukraine cannot launch any major fighting across the border. Photo: Sputnik, Kremlin pool Photo via AP, file
Strictly speaking, probably not, if they are smart. They know that Ukraine can't do major fighting across the border.
Yes, he can send some tanks: he probably still has his own original Soviet armor, and a lot more captured from the Russians. Such equipment can be deployed without violating agreements concluded with Western suppliers.
Hands are tied
But most Ukrainian artillery currently comes from the West, and, crucially, most of its remaining artillery shells will by now be Western. . All of its long-range precision artillery is Western, and most of its anti-aircraft weapons are Western.
Ukraine's hands are tied by its Western allies: it cannot seriously operate on Russian territory. Gerasimov and Putin can safely ignore pinpricks and raids along the border. They do not pose a military threat. Broken windows in Moscow have even less military significance.
Nevertheless, the shadow war may have a political effect. There is a hope, expressed by many, that as a result of Ukraine's actions, internal pressure on Putin will increase: that the outskirts will demand effective defense, that pampered Muscovites will want a normal air umbrella.
But Russia is not a democracy. Putin and Gerasimov seem determined to sit back and wait for the Ukrainians to break into their carefully prepared killing ground.
Zelensky's 39-year shadow war could help increase pressure on Putin — hope for more international support. Photo: BRENDAN SMYALOWSKY/AFP via Getty Images
Zelensky and his generals, if they're smart, won't do it: or they're in no hurry anyway. They will continue their shadow war, hoping to increase the pressure on Putin and «shape the battle» to their liking.
They will hope for more Western support: just a few key weapons, most notably the American ATACMS long-range precision-guided missile, could win the war for them, or at least the land bridge battle, which would be a big step in that direction. Poland has ATACMS and will probably only need US permission to send it.
The only thing that can get Zelensky's hand is the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House in 2024. This could mean less or no US support if Ukraine does not accept the terms agreed between Trump and Putin, which will likely look like a defeat. Ukrainian eyes. A Trump victory in 2024 could force Zelensky to attack no matter what.
Nuclear Threat
Indeed, Zelenskiy's war is already controlled largely from Washington. It is the US insistence that Ukraine cannot use American weapons against Russia that forces the Ukrainians to attack into the land bridge trap and allows Russia to ignore 1000 km of its own border and concentrate its forces there to meet them.
People before there is still speculation that a frustrated Putin might decide to use nuclear weapons, possibly tactical ones, on the battlefield in Ukraine. However, it is not entirely clear whether this will help him, and the US has made it very clear that in this case, they will respond with the overwhelming force of conventional weapons.
It has always been obvious that US conventional forces, if they decide to act directly, can cripple the Russian military effort in a very short amount of time, and the disastrous results of the Aerospace Forces in defending Moscow have only made this even more obvious.
True, of course, that Putin's nuclear arsenal is already in use and has proven to be highly effective. He instills fear in the White House and thus forces Ukraine to fight with their hands tied.
If Zelensky could send a real tank attack into Belgorod, he could either draw the defenders away from the land bridge, or perhaps outflank and roll up most of the Russian main line inside Ukraine. But it can’t: because Putin’s nuclear threats work well against the Biden administration.
“The language of escalation is the language of justification,” as Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba put it.
Trump and Biden may take note of what has been called the «America First» argument for helping Ukrainians. The idea here is that the Ukrainians are doing the West in general and America in particular a huge favor, not the other way around. Cory Shake, senior defense analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, may have summed it up. Best in a recent interview with CNN: “With about 5% US defense spending last year and zero US military casualties, the Ukrainians are destroying the Russian army. And it's absolutely in America's interest.»
From this perspective, Western military assistance to Ukraine is a great investment: we clearly need to send more of it.
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