A blow to Labor as Wales lose a fifth of its seats due to border changes

Experts said the change in borders would hurt Sir Keir Starmer's party's hopes for further progress in Wales. Photo: Matthew Horwood/Getty Images < p>One in five constituencies in Wales will be abolished in final boundary changes, expected to hurt Labor's prospects in the next election.

All 650 constituencies have been redesigned under the new plan to reflect changing populations and ensure a more even distribution of voters than under current arrangements.

The report of the Boundary Commission was released on Wednesday and presented in Parliament by the Speaker of the House communities by Sir Lindsey Hoyle.

The number of MPs in Wales will be reduced from 40 to 32, while the total number of MPs in Scotland will be reduced from 59 to 57.

The electoral map will remain 650 electoral districts, which means that England will get an additional 10 seats.

2906 regional boundary changes

The Telegraph spoke to experts who said the changes would hurt Sir Keir Starmer's party's hopes of further success in Wales, which already has a Labor Party. government.

“The problem for the Tories is in north Wales, where they won a lot of seats in 2019, many of them underperforming,” one source said.

“While the changes affect Tories, they also affect Labor. more, but it affects them in south Wales, not north east Wales.»

Lord Hayward, one of Britain's leading electoral experts, told the Telegraph: «The reduction in seats from 40 to 32 affects Tories in north Wales and the Labor Party in the south.”

The changes include the merging of Rhondda, represented by Sir Chris Bryant, a senior Labor MP and Chairman of the Privileges Committee, and the Ogmore Valley into a single parliamentary constituency.

Sir Chris told The Telegraph: “Rhondda and Ogmore valleys have a lot in common, not least there is a mountain between them. And many people in Tonirefeil and Gilfah-Goh think they live in Rhondda. I never take anything for granted, but I look forward to representing significantly more seats after the next election.

“But I'm surprised that the boundary proposals have changed three times already, including at this very last stage, especially with a place that spans two local governments. I fear the government has given the Boundary Commission an impossible task.”

Beth Winter, currently MP for the Cynon Valley, said earlier this month she was considering her options after losing to a shadow minister in a contest represent another newly expanded constituency.

Ms Winter, who is on the left of the party, lost to Gerald Jones, who represents Merthyr Tiedfil and Rhymney, in a vote by party members embraced by Merthyr Tiedfil and Upper Cynon's new seat.

She tweeted that «disappointed by this very close result and the unfair manner in which it was obtained», prompting Labor to insist that it was a fair selection process.

2906 most modified constituencies

Expert analysis of boundary changes that have been in preparation for several years , has long shown that they can help the Conservatives get as many as 10 MPs, and the opposition parties will lose the equivalent amount.

However, the national a poll showing Tory trailing Labor by about 20 points means the reality may be less rosy for the government the next time voters go to the ballot box.

The Wyre and Preston constituency held by Ben Wallace, Secretary of Defense, will be absorbed into the larger Lancaster and Wyre constituency. A source told the Telegraph: “His seat has become much more marginal… He [a cabinet minister] is at the most risk. His seat itself is not being abolished, but is becoming much more marginalized.”

It has been previously reported that Mr. Wallace is in danger of losing his seat in the next election due to current trends.

A phased poll conducted by Focaldata for the Best for Britain group last month using the new boundaries showed Labor on track to win 430 seats, the equivalent of a majority of 170.

p>The changes include the merging of Rhondda, represented by Sir Chris Bryant, and the Ogmore Valley into a single constituency. Photo: iStockphoto

The study also indicated that 10 members of Rishi Sunak's cabinet could lose their seats according to the latest polls.

These include Penny Mordaunt, leader of the House of Commons, Grant Shapps, secretary for energy security and Net Zero and Greg Hands, Tory Chairman.

These changes will fulfill the promise contained in the 2019 Tory Election Manifesto, which pledged to “renew and level the boundaries of Parliament” to ensure that “ each vote shall be considered equal.»< /p>

All recommended districts must have between 69,7254 and 77,062 voters in accordance with the statutory formula, with the exception of five «protected» districts — two places on the Isle of Wight in which the existing the place will be divided into two, as well as the Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland in Scotland and Inis Mon in Wales.