Crisis looms as dry weather threatens one of the world's busiest waterways

Over 100 container ships await a vital trade route. Photo: LUIS ACOSTA/AFP

Constructed as the shortest route between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, the Panama Canal is a marvel of the modern world.

The canal allows ships to move from one side of the Americas to the other in a matter of hours, eliminating the need for a two-month, 8,000-mile circuit around the southern tip of Chile.

Recently, however, trepidation has given way to frustration among sailors as the queue of boats waiting to pass through the 40-mile system of locks and lakes has stretched. back to the sea on both sides.

More than 100 container ships are waiting to pass after a historic drought forced officials to shut down a vital trade artery, according to official figures.

The canal is 109 years old and uses millions of gallons of water. fresh water taken from nearby lakes to move ships up and down when passing between the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea.

But this year, a longer-than-expected dry season followed by a drier-than-expected wet season has caused water levels to drop to an all-time low, raising the risk of ships running aground.

To make matters worse, by next spring the problem could escalate into a full-blown crisis. , the time of year when conditions are driest. In the maritime industry, this has raised fears that climate change will make such delays more frequent and costly.

“We need to do something about this,” Antonio Dominguez, managing director of shipping giant Maersk, said earlier this month. , the canal's largest user.

In response to the drought, the canal administration is trying to keep watering as much as possible while allowing the passes to continue.

Areas of Central America have been hit by dry weather that has slammed water levels to unprecedented lows. Photo: LUIS ACOSTA/AFP

Each time a ship makes a voyage, 55 million gallons of water are used up — almost all of this water is drained into the sea.

Water level in Gatun Lake, the main reservoir and one of the largest artificial reservoirs. lakes in the world, on Friday stood at 79.5 feet. This was above the record low of 78.3 feet, but below the historical average of 85.3 feet for this time of year.

The lake is currently expected to drop to 79.3 feet before it rises again in mid-September, but forecasts are far from accurate scientific data.

Experts are also concerned about the potential impact of the El Niño weather event. , which could bring the start of the next dry season closer and lead to even more evaporation.

«This is the perfect storm of events,» Stephen Peyton of the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in Washington told Reuters.

Currently, the administration of the canal limits the number of ships allowed per day to 32, compared to 36 per day normally.

At the same time, ships wishing to pass through the canal are not may have a draft (the depth to which the hull is submerged in water) greater than 44 feet.

0209 Panama Canal

The restrictions have created a large-than-usual number of container ships waiting to pass, around 130 compared to the usual 90, forcing some large ships to unload cargo or take alternative routes instead.

Meanwhile, ships are encouraged to book tickets in advance, to avoid a long wait of nine to ten days (compared to the more usual five days), and some pay big money to bypass the queue at daily auctions.

One unnamed. The company recently paid $2.4m (£1.9m) on top of the standard transit fee of around $400,000 to secure a slot that will allow its vessel to pass faster, shipping company Avance Gas said earlier this week. .

“You can skip the line, but it will be very expensive,” said Øystein Kalleklev, CEO of Avance Gas.

All of these additional costs will likely eventually pass along the supply chain and to consumers, worries David Jinks, head of research at delivery company ParcelHero.

Unlike the Suez Canal, few boats pass through the canal. most likely heading to the UK or Europe.

Some shipping companies pay big money to avoid queuing daily . auctions Photo: Agustín Herrera/AP

But many of them may head to America's east or west coast to supply companies that will eventually ship across the Atlantic, Jinks says.

“This could affect electronic components coming from China to the US, which could potentially make products that end up in the UK,” he adds.

“So just before Christmas you can expect significant impact when the situation potentially becomes more expensive.”

Peter Aylott, director of policy at the UK Chamber of Commerce, says the Panama crash is much less serious than when the container ship ran aground in the Suez Canal two years ago, but adds: a period of time.

«There's no doubt about that it will affect trade flows. Whether this will feel something that consumers will feel, I would say is unlikely at the moment — in the medium term you may see some changes.

Germany faced the same problems as the Panama Canal last summer when the Rhine was almost dry. Photo: Ben Kilb/Bloomberg

Meanwhile, delays in Panama have eased from the worst of recent weeks, with a queue of 200 ships and up to 21 days of waiting for those without reservations.

Canal restrictions are hitting LPG supplies particularly hard (CIS) – propane and butane as larger container ships are blocked by weight and draft restrictions.

Some ships are reportedly forced to make weeks-long maneuvers through the Suez Canal and the Cape of Good Hope, among which US shipments to Asia have been hit.

On Friday, Isaac Hanks, senior weather analyst at the London Stock Exchange Group, warned that levels Canal water will remain «exceptionally low for several months to come» despite improved rainfall.

Closer to home in Europe, Germany faced similar problems when the River Rhine nearly dried up last summer.< /p>

Last summer, low water levels at Kaub, a key staging post west of Frankfurt, temporarily made sections of the trade route impassable to barges carrying coal and oil.

And now Ricaurte Vasquez has similar questions Morales, administrator of the Panama Canal.

“We are climate dependent, so climate change is a real issue for us,” he said one last time. week.

Efforts to find a solution may determine whether the channel retains its status as a modern marvel, or whether it is relegated to the history books as ancient.