Protesters converged on Downing Street on Tuesday shortly after Ulez Street expanded to encompass London. Credit: Carl Court/Getty Images
Leading independent experts warn that Sadiq Khan's ultra-low emission zone (Ulez) will not help achieve his goal of net zero by 2030.
They argue that the number of non-compliant cars is likely to increase. the fall is only a relatively «small number» and would most likely be due to new industry standards anyway.
Using Ulez to reach net zero would take «more than a century,» said one expert. who produced a new report from Oxford Economics, the world's leading independent economic advisory firm.
On Tuesday, the Mayor of London unveiled a controversial scheme that would pay Greater London motorists £12.50 a day if their vehicles do not meet stringent emissions standards.
It is part of his plans to improve public health. of those who live in the capital and reach their target of zero by 2030.
3008 which roads are affected
In an interview with The Telegraph, Richard Holt, Director of Global Cities Research at Oxford Economics, spoke about future drop in non-compliant cars in London: “I think it would have happened anyway.
“This will reduce the number of highly polluting cars by about 120,000 or fewer of London's three million cars, so that's just a small part of the story.
“It's likely to do some good, but it's not a big story. The progress that we have seen so far is actually due to the fact that cars have become much more energy efficient and environmentally friendly than before.
«I think that in the first four years of Ulez's existence, CO2 emissions dropped by about 3 percent in those three years, so it would take more than a century to reach net zero in this way, which puts the scheme in perspective.»
Ulez turned out to be extremely unpopular: at least 450 of the 1,762 cameras in the newly expanded area were damaged or missing after vandals tried to disrupt the scheme's launch.
Telegraph analysis showed that six of the 23 in the new areas, covered by the Ulez expansion, more than a third of their cameras were targeted.
A new report from Oxford Economics says Mr Khan's zero target cannot be met before 2050, and it warns that removing the most polluting vehicles from London's roads and increasing electric vehicle consumption «will depend on cost, capability and convenience».
The authors warn that it will be difficult for Londoners to quickly switch to electric vehicles due to the cost of living crisis and the lack of charging stations.
Mr Holt added: “Your car, once you buy it, will cost you less in operation. But if you have £30,000 to shell out and can't get a loan at the low rate at the moment, there's not much you can do about it.”
The City Hall predicts London will need £40 000 to 60,000 public charging stations, but there are currently less than 13,000 in the capital.
To meet the target, London will need to install between 450 and 675 additional new chargers per month. .
The government has also abandoned an EV incentive scheme, and economists have warned that «range worries» are causing many drivers to refuse to switch to EVs.
According to data published by NimbleFins, a personal finance website, the average cost of a new electric car is around £50,000, more than double the cost of a new petrol or diesel car, and only £2,000 is offered under the scrappage scheme. to switch to a less polluting car.
2907 Low Emission Zones, UK
The report states: “Electrification will depend on cost, capability and convenience. At the moment, cost is the main issue. And while the running costs of an electric car are typically lower than those of a petrol or diesel car, rising electricity prices from 2021 have closed the gap.
“While most car journeys in London are less than seven miles, consumers are still It may be discouraging that electric vehicles currently provide less flexibility than gasoline vehicles for long distance travel.
“Ulez himself is much softer than he is portrayed. TfL [Transport for London] estimates that the number of non-compliant vehicles in outer London will drop from 160,000 to 46,000 due to Ulez expansion in 2023. In the context of London, this is a small number. So in terms of climate change, Ulez is not a game-changer.»
A spokesman for Mr Khan said: «The Mayor remains committed to the goal of net zero London by 2030. Ulez works and is London. wide. This is an important next step in tackling the triple challenges of toxic air pollution, traffic congestion and the climate emergency, and is just one of the many measures the Mayor is advocating to help achieve that goal.
«But the Mayor is clear made it clear that in order for us to achieve zero emissions by 2030, the government needs to step up efforts as it only has the authority to address less than half of London's emissions.
«He urgently urged ministers to provide more funding and City Hall powers to support our efforts to strengthen our green economy and build a better and more prosperous London for all.”
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