The exchange rate of the American currency after a month and a half break dropped below 95 rubles/$. This was facilitated by an increase in the supply of foreign currency from exporters, both as part of the requirements for the sale of foreign currency earnings, and in preparation for the largest tax payments this year. Analysts do not rule out a decline in the dollar exchange rate to 92 rubles/$, which will be facilitated by the expected increase in the key rate of the Bank of Russia.
On October 23, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange fell below 95 rubles/$ for the first time in six weeks. During trading, it reached 94.16 rubles/$, the minimum value since September 12. This is 1.16 rubles. below Friday's close. At the end of the day, the loss of the American currency decreased to 90 kopecks, and as a result, the rate stopped at 94.43 rubles/$. The euro exchange rate dropped below 100 rubles/€ during trading, but ended trading at 100.55 rubles/€, which is only 30 kopecks higher. below Friday's close. The yuan lost 12 kopecks in value. and closed at 12.88 rubles/CNY.
The confident strengthening of the Russian currency continues for the fourth trading day in a row. During this time, the dollar exchange rate fell by 3.28 rubles, the euro – by 2.98 rubles. A stronger decline in the value of the American currency was facilitated by its weakening on the world market. The DXY index (the dollar's exchange rate against six major currencies) fell to 105.75 on Monday, 0.4% below Friday's close, according to Investing.com. The euro rose against the dollar by 1%, to $1.0644.
Among the main reasons for the strong strengthening of the ruble, analysts highlight the authorities’ demands for the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters and the approaching main tax payments in October.
In accordance with the decree of the President of the Russian Federation, individual exporters, within 60 days of receiving funds, are required to credit at least 80% of foreign currency to accounts in Russian banks, of which at least 90% must be converted into rubles. Head of the department of economic and industry analysis of PSB Evgeniy Loktyukhov notes that the rules for the repatriation of foreign currency earnings will also apply to subsidiaries of companies included in the decree – this allows us to expect that the volumes of foreign currency entering the market will be close to the volumes of actual exports.
Although companies are given a two-week time lag to sell foreign currency, large tax payments force them to rush. According to the head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank, Vladimir Evstifeev, the volume of basic payments in October will amount to 3.2 trillion rubles, which is the maximum for the current year. The increase in payments to the budget is also associated with rising energy prices. “The spread of the Russian Urals grade to Brent grade has decreased to $11 per barrel, although a month ago it was $15–17. This will maximize the potential inflow of currency into the country,” notes Mr. Evstifeev.
The increased activity of exporters is also evidenced by a sharp increase in the volume of exchange trading in the yuan, the share of which continues to grow in foreign economic activity.
According to the Central Bank, in August the share of “toxic” currencies in exports dropped to 25.2%, while the share of the yuan rose to 29%. At the beginning of the year, the dominance of the currencies of unfriendly countries was unconditional – 48.7% versus 13% in the Chinese currency. According to the Moscow Exchange, the volume of transactions with the yuan for delivery “tomorrow” amounted to almost 158 billion rubles on Monday, more than 40% higher than Friday. At the same time, dollar and euro trading volumes decreased by 11% and 46%, to RUB 109 billion. and 50 billion rubles.
A decline in foreign exchange rates, as noted by the head of the department of stock market experts at BCS World of Investments, Albert Koroev, provokes all market participants to sell currency. However, experts do not expect any significant movement. According to Vladimir Evstifeev’s estimates, the nearest targets for the dollar will be 92–94 rubles/$. In addition to the approaching tax period, the ruble will be further supported by expectations of an increase in the key rate at a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank at the end of the week. Evgeny Loktyukhov in the base scenario expects an increase of 100 bps. p., up to 14%. “Taking into account seasonal ruble injections, the dollar exchange rate may return to 95.5 rubles/$ by the end of this year,” he estimates.
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