Jeremy Hunt will make his fall statement on Wednesday. Photo: Geoff Pugh for The Telegraph
Jeremy Hunt wants to make it clear he's not going anywhere.
“Absolutely not,” the chancellor says, quick as a flash, when asked if he has temptation to resign as MP at the next general election.
Few would object to him if he did so. Hunt's first day in the Cabinet was more than 13 years ago, when Sir Alex Ferguson was still in charge of Manchester United and Nicolas Sarkozy was in charge of France.
He was the Minister of Culture, the Minister of Health – the longest in this position. British history – and Foreign Secretary, plus stood twice for Tory leadership. But he insists he will not announce a time yet.
“I will fight tirelessly for my seat in Godalming and Ash, where I face a strong challenge from the Liberal Democrats,” Mr Hunt says.
“This place has become one of the most marginal. So I realize this is the fight of my life, but I'm ready for this fight. And I am very confident that I will return to parliament after the next elections.”
It is an apparent attempt to quell rumors that emerged in an Observer report after last month's Conservative Party conference that he was being advised by senior Tories to resign.
But it is the Chancellor's position on another issue that is being watched more closely ahead of the autumn statements next week.
Since Rishi Sunak became prime minister last October, leaving Hunt, 57, in his post following his emergency call to the Treasury in Liz Truss's final days, the pair have resisted tax cuts.
Inflation falls is the main task. Economic priority number one, the pair have repeatedly sparred publicly and privately, no matter how loudly their own party's supporters beat the drum.
But now inflation has halved this year, fulfilling one of Mr.'s five promises. on Sunak – the Office for National Statistics confirmed this week.
So, subtly but significantly, the narrative changes. The focus on inflation is easing, and stimulating economic growth is the overriding goal of the Autumn Statement, announced on Wednesday.
Mr Hunt invoked the weather metaphor in his Autumn Statement last year, as prices spiraled higher and markets were still jittery after Truss's premiership, declaring “we will face the storm” and do what is necessary.
So the blue sky is showing now? “The storm is abating,” says the chancellor, updating his metaphor. “There are still some dark clouds there. We cannot be complacent. Inflation is still above target, so we obviously need to stick to plan.
“But now is the moment when we can start planning for a post-inflationary economy in which we focus on long-term growth. I would say that if I'm going to pick the economy that I think has the greatest potential in the world to really move forward in the coming decades, it's ours.”
The optimism expressed by Mr. Hunt On Friday, as he rode the train north to Sheffield from London for a factory visit, the early morning sun streaming into the carriage had implications for the timing of the tax cuts.
Throughout the interview, the Chancellor seems to be leaning towards the idea that tax cuts could come next Wednesday, although they will never be final.
“We believe that if we are going to grow the economy, it will be the Autumn Growth Statement and then we have to show the country that there is a path to a lower tax economy.” Photo: Geoff Pugh for The Telegraph
When Mr Hunt is asked directly whether tax cuts will be announced in the Autumn Statement, he sets out his position in detail.
First, it is a statement of belief: “I fundamentally reject the Labor consensus that taxes should grow even higher. And I think it's incredibly dangerous for us as a country if we come to this simple way of thinking that taxes can only go one way.”
Secondly, there are caveats. “What we would never do is risk the progress we've made against inflation by passing tax cuts that are inflationary and take us in the opposite direction,” Mr. Hunt says, adding that borrowing to finance tax cuts won't work either, a nod to Ms Truss.
“That's the autumn statement about growth”
But then he says: “In this context, I think the main point of tax cuts is that there is a way to reduce the tax burden, and the Conservative government will follow this path.”
“It's not an easy path.” . To achieve this, you will have to make difficult decisions. But we believe that if we are going to grow the economy, this is the Autumn Growth Statement, then we have to show the country that there is a path to a lower tax economy.”
The response has been amazing. The message is not that “now is not the time for tax cuts”, as Mr Hunt and Mr Sunak preached last year.
It appears to be the other way around: now is the time. it's time to show the country that there is a way to reduce taxes.
To double-check, the question is asked again, directly: Are you saying the tax cuts will happen next week?
“Without pre-empting the decisions that the Prime Minister and I make, this is an autumn announcement on growth,” Mr. Hunt says again, seemingly making no attempt to dismiss the idea.
“This is a turning point for the economy. Therefore, our priority will be to increase business competitiveness. After all, the path to lower taxes is through a more productive and dynamic entrepreneurial economy. So that will be our priority this autumn.”
The news will have Tory MPs rubbing their hands. However, how far and how quickly the Treasury will go is another matter.
With inflation still at 4.6 percent, well above the Bank of England's 2 percent target, government insiders expect the next budget to will have a larger tax cut in the spring than this fall.
“Personally, he is uncomfortable with the current tax burden”
The Chancellor will not comment on reports that plans to cut inheritance tax are in the works and are close to being signed into law.
But he again leaned back when asked whether he was “personally uncomfortable” with the current tax burden , approaching the highest level since the 1940s, measured by tax collections as a percentage of GDP.
“Yes,” he replies. “Taxes are too high and we need to reduce them. We currently have lower taxes than any major European economy, but that shouldn't be our guideline.
“Because when you look around the world, the most dynamic, vibrant and prosperous economies are in North America and Asia . where they typically have a lower tax burden. This should be our guideline.”
The measures included in the Autumn Statement, one of two “fiscal moments” in the political calendar when tax and spending measures are announced, will be about more than just taxes.
The Chancellor has ordered his team to get to work, according to a Treasury insider on ideas to stimulate the fundamental drivers of economic growth just a day after the adoption of the spring budget.
One of the long-term plans in development is to get the sector to focus on how it can become more efficient, particularly by introducing artificial intelligence to improve productivity.
The Ministry Finance shared new efficiency statistics with The Telegraph. An internal government review found that dozens of public sector employees spend eight hours each week on administrative tasks.
The chancellor's idea is to use financial power to boost efficiency projects by signaling a willingness to commit new money to proposals. this will lead to workers spending more on the front line.
And so the Home Office has put forward recommendations that are expected to save an estimated 750,000 hours of police time.
The Department for Education is also looking to cut teacher workload up to five hours per week over three years due to changes in areas such as data or grading.
Determination to improve productivity
This is, of course, very important. Easier said than done: chancellors have been harping on improving Britain's internationally lagging productivity for decades. But Mr Hunt is showing determination.
He says: “If we can increase public sector productivity growth by just 1 per cent, then we can start to reduce the tax burden, even though there are higher costs for the NHS and social care system due to an aging population.”
< p>“Now anyone in the private sector will say that a 1 percent increase in productivity growth is entirely achievable. I have a fantastic new Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Laura Trott. She and I will work to achieve at least this.
“If you look at such fantastic institutions as the NHS, the police, our public school system, even their biggest supporters would say they are rife with inefficiency.”
He highlights “the amount of time it takes police officers having to fill out forms, nurses having to hunker over an IT system entering data instead of looking after patients, teachers spending more time grading homework and non-teaching activities.” tasks than the real tasks of teaching.”
Another initiative has already become public: a tightening of the unemployment benefits regime to shift the balance of incentives towards employment.
One change will see people who neglect job search requirements six months after applying for receiving unemployment benefits will lose benefits such as free prescriptions and free bus passes.
Mr Hunt defends the changes, citing the positive impact work can have. on people's lives. It is noteworthy that the Labor Party also spoke about reforms in this area.
But the Chancellor is refusing to confirm whether benefits will be increased in line with October rather than September inflation. A lower inflation rate would save the Treasury an estimated £3 billion.
On the other hand, whether he would reverse the three-year freeze on local housing benefit called for by homelessness charities, there is no indication that the answer will be in the affirmative.
Hunt denies the new version of “austerity”
Mr Hunt also defends existing plans to increase spending on public services at the end of this decade at just 1 per cent above inflation a year, far below the current level of 3.3 per cent.
He denies that this is represents a new version of “austerity” but appears to acknowledge that it will mean real cuts to vulnerable government departments.
Beyond the economic measures, there is the small matter of politics and the threat of election defeat looming over the Tories, who are trailing Labor by a whopping 22 percentage points, according to the latest polling average.
Does the Chancellor agree that the Conservatives are ahead? Are you in for a 1997-style smash?
“Not at all. And there are two reasons why I don’t share this point of view,” he says.
“First of all, the big difference between now and before '97 was that the voters had already made their decision. They wanted Tony Blair and there was little John Major or Ken Clarke could do about it.
“We know that about 20 per cent of voters say they will vote but have no idea who they will vote for . vote for. And if you look at the last decade, the only thing you can conclude about politics is that it is incredibly unstable.”
Before a time is set for a train table chat, there is an opportunity to briefly explore an aspect of Mr. Hunt's life little known to the public.
The Chancellor told Classic FM this week that when he was a new MP he loved Latin dancing so much that he wore a T-shirt under his shirt and, “like Superman,” changed costumes after rushing to the dance club after later votes in House of Commons.
So is this still happening now that he's in the Treasury? “I used to be a very enthusiastic Latin dancer,” Mr. Hunt says finally, and the announcement on the train gives him time to think before answering.
“Actually, I danced Brazilian dance. They called it a lambada, and I went to the [Rio de Janeiro] carnival for three years in a row.
“But there is one thing – this was before I got married. And I've found that family life, politics and Latin dancing don't mix, so I'm afraid my dancing days are behind me.”
So the dancing shoes are hung up, at least for now. Both he and Tori will hope that next year won't be their last tango.
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