Rishi Sunak faces a difficult week in his political career. Photo: MARIA UNGER/AFP
Rishi Sunak faces six possible scenarios, from the passage of the Rwanda Bill to a humiliating defeat this week, which will be the biggest test of his premiership to date.
MPs- Conservatives on opposite wings of the party have already voiced their objections to Sunak's legislation. , which is intended to prevent any further legal problems and ensure that migrants can be deported.
A majority in the working government of 56 means 29 MPs would have to vote against the law, or 57 would have to abstain for it to fail at the stage second reading.
1 – Instant defeat (worst option). script)
The bill will be introduced in the House of Commons on Tuesday, and the first — and worst-case — scenario involves its immediate defeat by Tory rebels.
Most MPs have privately said they are prepared to support the bill at its current stage because the second reading focuses more on the principles of the proposed law rather than on the finer details.
If enough MPs challenge Mr Sunak, however, an instant defeat would deal a devastating blow to his premiership and call into question whether he can take the party to a general election.
2 — Deferred defeat
If approved, the bill will return to House of Commons for third reading in the new year. For now, the second scenario assumes defeat unless Mr Sunak can reconcile competing claims from stakeholders that the bill either goes too far or doesn't go far enough.
3 — Concessions placate rebels
The third scenario: Mr Sunak gets the legislation through the House of Commons. This in turn may have been the result of a series of concessions made to appease his restless supporters, or as a result of successful attempts to persuade Conservative MPs to support his plan to prevent the Rwanda policy from completely collapsing.
4 — Deadlock in the Lords
Once approved by the House of Commons, the legislation will have to pass through the House of Lords — and it is at this stage that unwanted memories of the Brexit impasse may arise.
Just like what happened with Theresa May's Article 50. The bill was rejected by peers back in 2017, the House of Lords could either reject or significantly change the Rwanda bill, leading to parliamentary «ping pong» that saw the legislation oscillate between the two houses.
Currently At this point, some in the Tory ranks are likely to call on Mr Sunak to call a general election to democratically justify his plans to cut illegal immigration.
5 – Approval, agreement, take off
Fifth According to the scenario, the Lords will have no problem passing the legislation, in which case it will receive Royal Assent and become law.
At this stage, deportation flights will begin almost immediately, with the Rwandan scheme becoming a principle of the government's migration policy in the run-up The 2024 general election will be a clear dividing line between the Tories and Labor, who oppose the scheme.
6 – More legal problems
However, in the sixth scenario, the scheme gets the go-ahead but ultimately fails to succeed because it is mired in further legal problems, much in the same way that previous legislation aimed at implementing the policy was delayed.
Swella Braverman, a former home secretary, has already raised this possibility, warning Mr Sunak that the plan in its current form «won't work».
But Lord Sumption, a former chief justice, offered a more optimistic proposal this month point of view.
He said he believed the law would work on the basis that «the courts will do what they are told… if they are told what to do.» to do so in fairly clear terms», rating the bill as «pretty clear».
Despite all the heat and light at Westminster in recent days, the Rwanda bill clearing the House of Commons on Tuesday is considered both the most likely outcome and It's just the start of what could be months and which will continue to test the scale of Mr Sunak's political authority.
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