Monday February 5 may be the last day when you can buy foreign currency profitably. Now the ruble exchange rate is supported by high sales from the Central Bank; in response to the Ministry of Finance spending beyond the norm, it sells yuan for almost 12 billion rubles. in a day. In addition, in December 2023, the Ministry of Finance lost oil and gas revenues, so sales increased by another 4 billion rubles. But from February 6, operations according to the budget rule will be revised.
Last time, the lack of revenue was explained by a revision of tax legislation. Now, as expected, this factor will not influence, and the Ministry of Finance will order to reduce sales. How much, at the request of Kommersant FM, Bloomberg Economics Russia economist Alexander Isakov calculated:
“In our opinion, the total volume of foreign currency sales will decrease by approximately half, from the current 17.5 billion rubles. per day up to 8-9 billion rubles. in a day. This will happen mainly due to the fact that the Ministry of Finance for February will estimate net purchases of foreign currency instead of net sales; they could amount to about 80-90 billion rubles. for the entire month.
This is not too bad news. The reduction in sales by the Ministry of Finance and the transition to purchases means that there will be more tax sales from exporters. And what we lose in the form of foreign currency supply from the Ministry of Finance, we will gain in the form of more significant sales of foreign currency by exporters from increased revenue.
But there is a gap between the price of oil and changes in the volume of currency supply. According to our estimates, it is currently about a month.
The situation that we now see on the foreign exchange market is actually a reflection of rather low December prices. Since then, oil prices have increased by about 6-7%.
Over the past two weeks, the Russian currency has been noticeably weakening. At the end of January, it was still supported by the tax period, when exporters sold an increased volume of foreign currency. The devaluation accelerated in the first week of February. A reduction in sales by the Central Bank will be another blow to the ruble, Sergei Suverov, an investment strategist at the management company Ari-Capital, is sure:
“Serious sales of foreign currency by the Central Bank did not lead to a radical strengthening of the ruble, so I think that we can expect a reduction in foreign currency sales after February 6. This will be a factor in the possible weakening of the ruble, which is also indicated by tougher sanctions against Russian oil carriers, which leads to a significant discount of Russian Urals oil to Brent.
From the point of view of foreign exchange earnings, not everything is going well for Russia now. I think that during February we can expect a moderate weakening of the ruble, to about 94 rubles. for $1. The ruble was weakening and last week, despite quite significant volumes of currency sales, the price reached 91 rubles. for $1. Therefore, the factor of significant volumes of currency sales is not so significant, but, probably, after the volumes are reduced, the ruble can expect a stronger weakening.”
According to Alfa Bank’s base scenario, by the end By 2024, the dollar may rise in price to 100 rubles. Analysts surveyed by the Central Bank expect that this year on average the Russian currency will trade at 92 rubles. for $1. This is higher than the official forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, which assumes an average price of 90 rubles. for $1.
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