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Will England win the Six Nations? No, they won't

England's defense was torn apart too often by Italy in the first half on Saturday. Photo: Getty Images/Giampiero Sposito

After making his first Six Nations start, England winger Tommy Freeman said he believes his side can win the whole tournament. You can brush it off as youthful exuberance and remember that it was England's narrowest ever win over Italy, but what do you want him to say? If you don't believe, you won't succeed and I would rather he set a positive mindset than a negative one. Either way, people are tired of the cliché mantra of focusing on the next game. It's so obvious that I'm surprised this comment is accepted as legitimate these days.

However, Freeman and England will find they need to improve markedly, even for the next Test, which will be Wales at Twickenham. The first win is disproportionately important in the Six Nations because your first result sets the lens through which the future is shaped. After beating Italy, England have the advantage of playing at home in a match in which they can win two matches out of two, and then play three more test games.

Freeman was one of England's success stories in Rome. His constant work to make himself available either as a support or as a decoy runner contributed significantly to England's best creative efforts. This is something that his fellow back three, Freddie Steward and Elliot Daly, should emulate to improve the complexity of England's attacking options and create more problems for a better defense than Italy.

How much of the narrow score was due to the improving situation in Italy? Some of them. How much credit did England have for the first-half penalty shootout? Some of them. This was largely due to England's disjointed defense throughout much of the first half. Italy's two first-half tries were successful, but the ease with which they caught England's defense too narrow or crooked was alarming. A simple mistake by one defender clearing his line without the necessary cover is a sight that will not sit well with Felix Jones, England's new defense coach.

💧 This is LIQUID rugby from Italy!

What a move from the Azzurri as Tommy Allan races into his second attempt at the competition 😍

Watch #GuinnessSixNations LIVE on ITV1! pictures on the field. Such profligacy against the world's top teams, such as upcoming rivals Ireland and France, will leave England in a position from which there is little or no chance of escape.

England's defense in the second half was the basis of their victory. as for much of this period Italy was denied the ability to possess the ball with their front foot. They have also comfortably surpassed Italy in ruck speed and it will be interesting to see whether the efforts of newly appointed Andrew Strawbridge, a former All Blacks assistant coach, can maintain and improve on that standard.

Although England managed to make more than a third of their rucks under three seconds, that wasn't the whole story. This should not blind them to another, no less important fact. Successive, rapid failures eventually cause the protection to stretch, but this requires several steps. If defenders are still able to attack forward and one at a time without turning their shoulders in or out, the task becomes a simple matter of attrition. It also requires you to consistently carry the ball and kick it out without committing penalties, such as getting tripped or getting caught while holding the ball on the floor.

What was remarkable about France's rout of Ireland was that their ball carriers often advanced meters after first contact with the ball. Once this happens, the defensive line becomes more fragmented as defenders are forced to fall back, fill gaps and hastily reorganize.

Irish ball carriers often ran a meter after contact. Photo: Getty Images/Ramsey Cardy

It is in this aspect that England's greatest challenge to improvement lies. Their front five needs to be more dynamic and hold the ball more often and more effectively for the breakthrough to be as effective as possible. The situation improves slightly when it comes to the back row, but even there they have to find ways to take advantage of Ben Earle's speed rather than his relatively limited size.

Currently England don't have enough players. a kind of backpack that intimidates opponents with its size. They need to adapt their carrying task to accommodate this. You don't have to have giant forwards to make the tough yards, but if you don't, you'll have to be smarter about how to achieve it.

Opening game against an opponent who has never beaten England. this is not a good basis for absolute statements. Freeman's optimism will be sorely tested in the coming weeks, but at least it's a start. How inappropriate this is — or not — will soon become clear.

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