The Russians preferred the yuan to the dollar. The volume of deposits in Chinese currency doubled over the past year, to 68.5 billion in dollar equivalent, while in dollar terms the volume amounted to 64.5 billion, the Central Bank said in a review of financial market risks. Thus, among foreign currencies, the yuan came out on top with a share of 5.5% of all deposits. The regulator explained this growth by servicing export operations for businesses, and for individuals by using the yuan as a store of value.
Attention to this currency has also increased in the lending sector by 3.5 times. First of all, borrowers are exporting companies. In the long term, it is easier to obtain profitability from the yuan than from ruble assets, notes Dmitry Golubovsky, an analyst at the Golden Coin House company: “If we compare the yuan as a store of value with the ruble, I would choose the ruble for the short term and the yuan for the long term. The yuan rates are lower than the dollar rates, even on the international market. Moreover, there is deflation in China.
In the lending sector, the Chinese currency also has more advantages, for example, in terms of interest rates. I think that quality borrowers can quite easily get a corporate loan with a 4% rate. If I were Russian companies that receive revenue in rubles, if they are willing to take on currency risks or if their revenue correlates with the currency, I would choose a loan in yuan. But only if we are talking about long-term lending, because rates in rubles are prohibitive. When they were below 10%, it still made sense, but now, in my opinion, there is no lending in rubles. Between a loan at 15% per annum in rubles and at 4% per annum in yuan, of course, it is worth choosing the second option.
If we talk about the yuan as a currency for saving and accumulating funds, there may be infrastructure risks. Firstly, the ease of settlement that now exists between Russia and China may not continue. Secondly, when you open a deposit in a bank, you need to wonder: how, in fact, will you close it? Your deposit is opened in yuan, but closed in rubles by bank transfer. In most cases, yuan will not be given to you through the cash register.
In this case, the conversion rate of yuan into rubles at the time of closing the deposit plays a big role here. Because your return of 4% per annum may ultimately turn into 2%, for example.”
Most bank deposits in Chinese currency are corporate accounts. And you shouldn’t expect a sharp increase in deposits in yuan, says Ivan Uklein, director of bank ratings at the Expert RA agency: “The volume of deposit transactions in yuan is unlikely to show explosive growth, since economic agents who have entrusted their savings to the corresponding currency have most likely already decided with its strategy, and no drastic changes are expected in the future.
It is necessary to understand that the volume of balances in yuan, of course, reflects the balances in the accounts of corporate clients for the implementation of some specific transactions. For example, they purchased foreign currency in order to deliver it in a few days in accordance with the import contract. Here we are talking not so much about savings as about a means of payment. And it cannot be said that these are some huge amounts, judging by the volumes — less than 70 billion in US dollars equivalent. That is, it is a banal means of calculation. The volume of investments by individuals in this foreign currency is not yet significant; the bulk of it comes from corporate clients.”
At the beginning of 2022, almost all banks offered savings products in dollars and euros. A year later, the situation changed: 57 banks began offering clients 109 deposits and savings accounts in yuan. And deposits in dollars remained in only 19 banks, in euros — in 15 credit institutions, according to the Moscow Exchange project “Financial Services”.
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