Sunday's meeting is crucial in the race for the Premier League title. Photo: AP/Kirsty Wigglesworth
It's rivalry time. between Manchester City and Arsenal to heat up.
The secret of the formidable club feud lies in the regular matches between the two teams with trophy ambitions on the line. The outcome of the second Premier League meeting of the season between City and Arsenal for a year in a row will have a huge impact on who wins the title.
No less tempting is the prospect of a Champions League semi-final. the final. If they get past Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, the competition between City and Arsenal will rise to a new level. In elite sport, familiarity sometimes breeds contempt. By mid-April, City and Arsenal players may be tired of each other, but it will be exciting to watch.
There is potential for their meetings to join the list of the greatest English rivalries of the last 30 years. I'm thinking of Arsenal versus Manchester United in the years of Arsene Wenger and Sir Alex Ferguson, Chelsea versus United when Jose Mourinho first came to England, or more recently Pep Guardiola versus Jurgen Klopp.
Guardiola vs Mikel Arteta has yet to happen and the levels of animosity may never be entirely comparable, but it is getting closer because the stakes are now so high. When Klopp leaves England this summer, Arteta will be the best manager to fill the void of Guardiola's arch-rival. Whatever happens this season, Arsenal will not go away as long as Arteta is in charge and his squad remains intact and strengthened.
The rivalry between Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola has defined the recent history of the Premier League. Photo: Reuters/Jason Cairnduff
There has been a respectful master-versus-apprentice relationship between the coaches throughout previous meetings, with Guardiola's former assistant landing his heaviest blow in their last league meeting. The most obvious sign of how indifferent Guardiola is to Arsenal was his sale of Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko in the summer of 2022. I doubt that he will give Arsenal such quality again.
The dynamic began to change last year, but Guardiola eventually prevailed and City's 4-1 win over Arsenal in the corresponding game at the Etihad in April 2023 ended Arteta's title bid.
Sunday will be the most faithful. It's an indication of how far Arsenal have come since then. They have fewer points, but are more impressive in all aspects, better equipped to withstand pressure and control the game.
One of the clearest indicators of this is the xG difference, which tells us which teams have the right balance between attack and defense. Essentially, it is the difference between expected goals for and against, and is a useful indicator of which teams create the most scoring opportunities and concede the fewest chances.
Over the past four years, City has been the leader in this indicator. data chart. Arsenal are now in the lead, reflecting what our eyes have been telling us all season. They still create a lot, but are safer.
The reasons for this are obvious, given that Declan Rice has been a standout signing, strengthening the midfield, adding a layer of protection in front of the defense and supporting the forwards, while William's fitness Saliba is crucial to Arsenal's chances and all these questions at the start of the season. the signing of goalkeeper David Rye has disappeared.
Declan Rice has helped Arsenal become more balanced this season. Photo: Getty Images/Julian Phinney
The Etihad trip is especially meaningful for Saliba. Ask any Arsenal fan about the turning point of last season and they will say it was Saliba's injury. The title race may not have run its course as quickly as it would have without him.
It has been a strange week for the Arsenal centre-half. He became one of the Premier League's outstanding defenders, but was criticized by France coach Didier Deschamps.
«He does something I don't like,» he said.
The only thing Arsenal does. What fans don't like about their French defender is that someone has to replace him. As for Rob Holding, who replaced Saliba at City a year ago, the difference was palpable.
However, this increases the pressure on Saliba. He is considered by many to be the natural heir to Virgil van Dijk as the Premier League's best centre-back. Van Dijk is still number one and confirmed that status when he canceled out Erling Haaland's threat when they met at Anfield.
The gauntlet has been thrown down to Saliba. If he wins his duel with Haaland — one of many who will decide who wins on Sunday — Arsenal can look forward to a much better performance than their last trip to City.
William Saliba has a chance to establish himself as the league's best defenseman. Photo: Shutterstock/Neil Hall
They will not lack confidence. In head-to-head matches between Arsenal, City and Liverpool, Arteta is the only manager to win this season. And since Arteta's appointment in 2019, only City have amassed more points against the big six, adding Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur.
Despite all these positives — an improved team, outstanding players at the top of their form and top of the league table — most neutrals still expect City to win on Sunday and win the title.
Another statistic provided to the Monday Night Football team. Each week, Opta's forecaster suggests Arsenal are the least likely of the three contenders to finish the season on top.
Why? Partly because City are so good and history tells us that this is the point in the season where they go into fifth gear.
Immediately after the March international break in 2023, City played a series of the highest quality. games I've seen for any English side. They won nine consecutive league matches and also won the Champions League and FA Cup. They know how to time their sprint to the finish line.
City's surge in activity since the March international break last season led to them winning three major trophies. Photo: AP/Emra Gürel
Arsenal also have their toughest fixture yet, visiting Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United. the most striking one. There are also still concerns about squad size, although these concerns have been exaggerated for now. However, even when everyone is fit, Arsenal's bench is not as strong as City and Liverpool's.
Victory at the Etihad will erase any remaining negative assessments of Arsenal. They will be favorites to beat City as it will give them confidence that they can and should win all their remaining games.
For me, 90 points will win the title this season. If so, the difference is so small that even a couple of draws for one of the contenders would mean the end.
That's what makes Sunday so huge.
Every time the matches take place No matter what As important as these events were, there is always a temptation to call them «the most important game in the league for many years» for a club looking to end their title drought. The same could have been written before Arsenal went to City last season.
But there is no doubt that things are different now. After being on top of the title for so long, by the end of the 2023 campaign it wasn't much of a title fight. The gulf between the sides when they met did not reflect the final five-point gap.
Arsenal went to City with hope last April. They now act with faith and expectation.
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