England and Wales will go to the polls in local elections on Thursday 2 May as thousands of councilors face re-election amid predictions of huge losses Conservatives.
Millions of people will have the opportunity to vote at least once, although there are no elections in Scotland or Northern Ireland.
Here are some of the key election battlegrounds for which should pay attention.
Battle of London
Sadiq Khan is seeking re-election to the mayor's office, hoping to achieve a historic third term as mayor of London.
His main opponent is Susan Hall, a Conservative Party challenger who runs on a platform highlighting her opponent's crime rate and promising to convert reverse its expansion of the capital's ultra-low emission zone (Ulez).
However, the Tories face an uphill battle after a Sawanta poll taken in the week of April 8 showed Mr Khan ahead of Ms Hall by 24 points, equating to 50 per cent of the vote to her 26 per cent.
Mr Khan warned against complacency as he called on Green and Liberal Democrat supporters to lend him their votes after London's mayoral election system was changed to a first-past-the-post basis. which, according to the Labor Party, will make the task easier for their opponents.
He cited free school meals, a record number of council houses, the opening of the Elizabeth Line and a public transport fare freeze as reasons for Londoners to back his campaign.
However, Ms Hall accused Mr Khan of presiding over “crime, [ “out of control” and wasted millions of pounds of taxpayers' money during his time at City Hall.
Race in the West Midlands
Conservative Andy Street has been mayor of the West Midlands since 2017. However, the latest opinion polls suggest he will be ousted by Labor challenger Richard Parker on May 2.
Despite his personal popularity in the region, Mr Street has 28 per cent of the vote, compared with 42 per cent for his Labor Party rival, according to Redfield and Wilton Strategies.
West Midlands and Tees Valley mayoral elections will be closely watched as speculation continues over Rishi Sunak's future.
Philip van Scheltinga, research director at Redfield and Wilton Strategies, said that despite Street being a “beloved” politician, the wider Tory brand is now “so damaged… even strong, independent-minded candidates like him find themselves in in a losing position.” position.”
Tees Valley competition
Ben Houchen, the Conservative mayor of Tees Valley, is also seeking re-election and, as with Mr Street, his performance will be closely watched.
< p>“How he performs will be the first indication of Mr Sunak's ability to cling to support in the Red Wall, which consists of dozens of seats in the North and Midlands that have backed the Tories for the first time in a generation, and in some cases ever. under Boris Johnson in 2019.Mr Hauschen was elected in 2017 and re-elected in 2021 as the Conservatives enjoy a “vaccination rebound” as pandemic restrictions were eased and party support from the north side has been preserved. high.
However, with some national constituency polls predicting the Tories could now lose all Red Wall seats, Mr Houchen's defeat could be a foretaste of Red Wall's wider defeat in the general election.
Tory Losses
The scale of the Conservative Party's losses could also be significant, with some analysts predicting the Tories could lose half of the roughly 1,000 councilors they are seeking for election.
Analysis by election experts Michael Thrasher and Colin Rallings suggests the Conservatives could lose up to 500 seats if they repeat their poor performance in last year's local elections.
However, Lewis Baston, who has written about elections for more than three decades, noted that the last time one third of the seats were contested was in 2019, 2022 or 2023 due to boundary changes.
This suggests Tory support in this election. places are more stable because they have already withstood numerous changes in leadership.
However, just as a better-than-expected result could bolster Mr Sunak and change the tone of discourse around the next general election, the Conservatives if he manages to fall behind could increase speculation about whether a change in prime minister can be achieved before the next national election elections.
Blue wall and Lib Dem hesitation
Councils are up for re-election in the constituencies of Dorking and Horley, West Dorset and Wokingham – the three main general election target seats for the Lib Dems identified by Lord Hayward, fellow Tory and polling guru.
Despite the number of votes voter swing was just one per cent, Sir Ed Davey's party won more than 400 councilors in last year's local elections after the Tories' fortunes plummeted.
His party is hoping to repeat that success. If the Conservatives lose councilors in Wokingham, it will be a sign that Sir John Redwood, a veteran MP who led No 10 under Margaret Thatcher, may be in danger of losing his seat.
Chris Lauder MP from West Dorset could also be in trouble despite a majority of over 14,000 in 2019, while results in Dorking and Horley could point to larger losses in Surrey which could spell trouble for Jeremy Hunt , the chancellor, whose chair is nearby.
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