“This is just the beginning: Buckle up”
The world's leading climate scientists expect global warming to exceed the 1.5 degree target. According to a survey of hundreds of scientists, the planet is expected to rise in temperature by at least 2.5 degrees, which will lead to catastrophic consequences for humanity.
Hundreds of the world's leading climate scientists expect global temperatures to rise by at least 2.5°C (4.5°F) this century, exceeding internationally agreed targets and causing catastrophic consequences for humanity and the planet, an exclusive survey by The Guardian.
Nearly 80% of respondents, all from the respected Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), forecast global warming to be at least 2.5°C above pre-industrial levels, while nearly half expect it to be at least 3°C ( 5.4°F). Only 6% believed the internationally agreed limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) would be met.
Many scientists envision a “semi-utopian” future of famine, conflict and massacres. migration caused by heat waves, wildfires, floods and storms, the intensity and frequency of which far exceed those that have already occurred.
Numerous experts said they were left with feelings of hopelessness, rage and fear due to inaction governments, despite clear scientific evidence provided.
“I think we're heading towards major social disruption in the next five years,” says Gretta Peckl from the University of Tasmania. – The authorities will be faced with one emergency event after another, food production will be disrupted. I couldn't be more desperate for the future.”
But many experts, The Guardian emphasizes, said the fight against climate change must continue no matter how much global temperatures rise, because every fraction of a degree missed will reduce human suffering.
Peter Cox of the University of Exeter (UK) ) states: “Climate change will not suddenly become dangerous at 1.5°C – it is already there. And it won't be “game over” if we go past 2°C, which we might well do.”
Since 2018, The Guardian has contacted all lead authors or review editors of IPCC reports that could be contacted. Nearly half of the 380 out of 843 responded. IPCC reports are standard assessments of climate change, endorsed by all governments and prepared by experts in the physical and social sciences. The results show that many of the most informed people on the planet expect climate chaos to occur in the coming decades.
The climate crisis is already wreaking havoc on lives and livelihoods around the world, with global warming averaging just 1.2°C (2.16°F) over the past four years. Jesse Keenan of Tulane University in the US said: “This is just the beginning: buckle up.”
Nathalie Hilmy of the Monaco Science Centre, who expects temperatures to rise by 3 degrees, agreed: “We can't stay below 1.5 degrees.”
Experts said major preparations are now critical to protect people from the worst of looming climate disasters. Leticia Cotrim da Cunha from the State University of Rio de Janeiro states: “I am extremely concerned about the cost of human lives.”
The 1.5 degrees Celsius target was chosen to avert the worst impacts of the climate crisis and was seen as an important guiding light for international negotiations, The Guardian recalls. Current climate policies mean the world is expected to reach temperatures of around 2.7°C, and a Guardian poll shows few IPCC experts expect the world to take the scale of action needed to bring it down.
Younger scientists were more pessimistic: 52% of respondents under 50 expected temperatures to rise by at least 3 degrees, compared with 38% of respondents over 50. Female scientists were also more optimistic than male scientists: 49% thought global temperatures would rise by at least 3°C, compared with 38%. There were few differences between scientists from different continents.
Deepak Dasgupta of the Institute of Energy and Resources in New Delhi notes: “If the world, no matter how incredibly rich it is, stands by and does nothing to improve the lot of the poor, we will all lose in the end.”
< p>Experts have made it clear why the world is failing to tackle the climate crisis. Nearly three-quarters of respondents cited a lack of political will, while 60% also blamed corporate interests such as the fossil fuel industry.
Many also cited inequality and the rich world's failure to help the poor, who suffer the most from the effects of climate change. “I expect a semi-utopian future in which the people of the global south experience great pain and suffering,” said a South African academic who wished to remain anonymous. “The global community's response to date is reprehensible – we live in an age of fools.”
About a quarter of IPCC experts surveyed believed global temperature rise would remain at 2°C or below, but even they have tempered their hopes.
“I am convinced that we have all the solutions needed for the transition to 1.5°C, and that we will implement them in the next 20 years,” says Henry Neufeldt from UN Climate Center in Copenhagen. “But I fear that our actions may be too late and we will pass one or more tipping points.”
Lisa Schipper of the University of Bonn in Germany said: “My only source of hope is the fact that as an educator I I see that the next generation will be just as smart and understanding of politics.”
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