Joe Biden talks to residents affected by Hurricane Ian as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (right) accompanies him on his tour of destruction hurricane in Fort Myers Beach, Florida last October. Photo: EVELYN HOCKSTEIN/Reuters
When a six-week abortion limit was introduced in Florida last week, Ron DeSantis' team was not happy.
The issue has become a sore point for the Republican Party, both the governor and the Republican contender 2024 is caught between the party's socially conservative base and the broader American public, which overwhelmingly supports abortion rights.
As Joe Biden advances. before officially announcing his intention to run, his potential rival's extreme legislation could be the best political gift a US president could ask for.
A lot can happen in a year, but if today's polls are right, Mr. Biden is determined to win the next election.
But why?
Americans' access to abortions unites one major demographic: suburban women. This voting block didn't work for Donald Trump and could be turned off by Mr. DeSantis' ultra-conservative point of view.
Ron DeSantis speaks to supporters before signing a 15-week abortion ban a year ago. This month, he signed a ban on abortion after six weeks of pregnancy. Photo: AP
In the 2022 midterm elections, which became an unofficial referendum on abortion after Roe v. Wade was overturned earlier in the year, Democrats fared better. Voters in both blue and red states cited this as the number one reason Republicans were rejected on the ballot.
As far as foreign policy, especially on Ukraine, Mr. Biden is scoring reasonably well, while Mr. DeSantis and Mr. DeSantis and Mr. DeSantis. and Mr. Trump's isolationism has led them to deviate from the mainstream GOP stance and could potentially cost them dearly.
He has also chalked up other major legislative victories, including the passage of the widely supported infrastructure bill to rebuild America's crumbling highways and the Inflation Reduction Act to curb climate change and lower prescription drug prices.
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With declining US inflation and a booming job market, Mr. Biden may be in a better position closer to election time.
Presidential elections also generally favor sitting presidents. In fact, Mr. Trump was the first president to lose a bid for re-election since 1992, failing to join Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama.
In fact, Trump never won the popular vote. vote despite defeating Hillary Clinton in 2016. Since then, the 76-year-old and his candidates have lost three consecutive national elections.
Donald Trump speaks at the National Rifle Association convention in Indianapolis on April 14. Photo: AP
The former president will first have to win a grueling (and probably ugly) contest for the Republican nomination, which Biden, as an incumbent president with no serious opposition within his party, will not face.
Some Strategists see a scenario in which the 76-year-old Trump and DeSantis attack each other so viciously that they will scare away voters, forcing them to look for an alternative.
If he beats the Florida governor, Trump will be weaker ahead of the rematch with Biden than the first time.
His false claims that the 2020 election was stolen led to him losing support from known conservative donors.
Facing multiple allegations and civil lawsuits from prosecutors around the country, there's a chance he'll run as a convicted felon next year. While Mr. Trump's claims of political persecution could bolster his right-wing support in the primary, his legal danger could alienate swing voters in the general election.
The Democratic Party has begun to rally around Mr. Biden, in while the rivalry between the two most likely Republican candidates split it in half.President Joe Biden welcomes the Board of Public School Leaders' Teachers of the Year 2023 in the Rose Garden on Monday. Photo: JIM LO SCALTZO/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
The 80-year-old president has one big responsibility he can do little about. An NBC poll earlier this year found that only 28% thought he had the mental and physical health needed to be president. Most believe that he is too old to hold this position.
He is prone to gaffes and slips of the tongue when he doesn't go according to the script. His 2024 campaign must be carefully orchestrated.
Biden, already the oldest US president in history, will turn 85 at the end of his term if he is re-elected. Many have expressed concern over a scenario in which Biden dies in office, leaving his deeply unpopular Vice President Kamala Harris in command.
A 44-year-old Florida governor or another young Republican nominee is likely to be better to confront Mr. Biden. The FiveThirtyEight poll gives Mr. Biden an equal footing against Mr. DeSantis and gives Mr. Biden a three-point lead over Mr. Trump.
Right now, the GOP's best-case scenario would be that Mr. Trump to withdraw from the race, support a consensus candidate such as Mr. DeSantis, and then remain relatively calm. However, such a scenario seems extremely unlikely.
Experts predict that Biden will lose the election if he is ready for it.
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