The forecast for 2023 has been updated: even more significant growth is expected from the Russian car market

Analysts believe that Chinese brands with their high positive dynamics should be blamed for the positive changes in the forecast.

The Russian car market seriously sank last year due to the crisis. According to Avtostat estimates, in 2022, sales of new passenger cars fell by 58.7% and amounted to less than 626.3 thousand units. Recall that the agency uses data on state registration of new cars, therefore, it also takes into account those that were imported under the parallel import scheme (it was legalized in May last year).

In the photo: Chery Tiggo 7 Pro Max

It is worth noting that this year, despite a noticeable increase in APPG over the past several months, sales of new cars in the Russian Federation have not yet gone up. In January-May 2023, a total of 319,085 new cars were registered, this result is 0.1% less compared to the figure for the first five months of last year (319,398 units).

The agency has already revised its forecast for the Russian car market in 2023 several times: today Avtostat published a fresh version. According to it, the baseline scenario assumes that about 815,000 new cars will be sold in the Russian Federation by the end of the current year. This figure will be 30% higher than the extremely low result of 2022.

In the photo: Geely Coolray Sport

Analysts suggest that if events in the car market develop according to a pessimistic scenario, Russians will be able to buy about 780,000 new cars this year. That is, in this case there will be an increase, moreover, by about a fourth (by 25%).

The agency also believes that an optimistic option is also possible. This scenario assumes that sales of new passenger cars in the Russian market will increase to 850 thousand units, which corresponds to an increase of 36%. By the way, some experts do not exclude the possibility of higher figures — 1 million new cars sold in the Russian Federation in 2023.

>In the photo: Haval Jolion

In «AUTOSTAT» one of the main reasons for the current growth of the market was called the leading Chinese brands, with their «fantastic», «three-digit» dynamics. For example, in May, Chery's growth was 348% (registered 7444 units), Haval — plus 509% (7432 units), and Geely — plus 639% (6690 units). The listed brands are now in the top five most demanded in the Russian Federation, only the local Lada overtakes them.

Recall that the initial forecast suggested that 2023 would hardly be particularly successful for the Russian car market. The agency believed that under the optimistic scenario, the result would be 780 thousand new cars, with the base scenario — 650 thousand units, and under the pessimistic scenario, the figure would be 550 thousand copies (that is, 12% less than in 2022).