The development of the Comac C919 narrow-body jet liner cost China over $70 billion. Photo: Luo Yunfei/China News Service/VCG/Getty Images
Later last month, Beijing celebrated a breakthrough in the aerospace industry as a Chinese-made jet airliner took to the skies with paying customers on board.
China Eastern flight Airlines flew 660 miles from Shanghai to Beijing on China's most popular domestic route. The development of the narrow-body aircraft has cost the country more than $70 billion and is seen as a major technological step in breaking away from dependence on the West, mitigating any effects of Beijing's tougher approach to Taiwan.
The Comac C919 is roughly the size of an A319 and is one of the smallest aircraft in the Airbus lineup, seating up to 174 passengers. Despite remarkably similar dimensions and a 35.8m wingspan, it has a range of just two-thirds that of its more established competitors and is based on technology that is a generation behind its rival Airbus and the similar Boeing 737 Max.
< p>According to Rob Stallard, an analyst with Vertical Research Partners, the C919, which some describe as a competitor to similarly sized Boeing and Airbus models, is unlikely to immediately challenge the world's largest aircraft manufacturers.
But Beijing may not be looking to create competition from a couple that dominates the market, because in the West it is only opposed by the Brazilian Embraer, which occupies a smaller part of the market, as other competitors are gradually bought, ruined or abandoned. Canadian Bombardier has been the latest casualty by selling its narrow-body aircraft program to Airbus in 2020.
«History is definitely against them in this regard, but I don't know if the Chinese will care,» he said. said. “I don't think they are trying to create a global aircraft manufacturer. They're trying to provide aircraft for China.»
The aircraft program is part of China's plan to de-dependence on everything Western, says Anna Ashton, director of China for political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, especially when it comes to manufacturing the most complex industrial products.
The C919 is based on technology that is a generation behind the latest Airbus and Boeing models. Photo: VCG via Getty Images
This has been the case with everything from cars to nuclear power plants, gradually replacing imports with domestic products and then offering exports. Now she has a $9 billion space program second only to the US.
According to Ms. Ashton, building aircraft and developing computer chips are among the toughest challenges and next on the country's agenda, along with advances in artificial intelligence and quantum computing.
Developing an aircraft gives the country a bit more room to maneuver if tensions with the West flare up, as they did recently.
In recent weeks, the US has complained about «unsafe» and «aggressive» military interactions, including a Chinese warship slicing through a US destroyer and a fighter jet flying close to a US spy plane.
G- Stallard said: “Strategically, they don't want to be in a situation where, say, if the West imposes sanctions on China, as we did with Russia, within a relatively short period of time, you will have real problems moving people around the country. .”
However, there is still work to be done on this front. About 40% of aircraft parts are imported, including engines, the most difficult part of the aircraft to design, which are produced by the French companies Safran and General Electric.
Today, the aircraft is facing the same problems as the Russian one. its rival, the Sukhoi Superjet, did when it was being developed, although the Chinese model did not suffer from the high-profile accidents that happened to the Superjet.
Developed at the turn of the millennium, when relations with Moscow were sunnier, it relied on a host of Western suppliers of electronic systems, landing gear, flight controls and hydraulic equipment, and the engines were produced in a joint venture with Safran.
A 2012 mountainside accident in Indonesia that killed all 45 passengers and crew, and a fire in 2019 that killed 41 passengers. after a lightning strike that caused an emergency landing, both companies suffocated sales, but the sanctions also affected the Russian model, as parts for French and American-made engines are not available.
Comac, the manufacturer of the C919, insists on testing a locally made engine, to further strengthen it against foreign dependency. The CJ-1000A, being developed by China's Aero Engine Corporation, was seen being tested on a military transport aircraft earlier this year.
It may have been unwittingly helped by the manufacturers of the current Western model.
In November, Yangjun Xu, 42, was sentenced to 20 years in a US prison for attempting to steal secrets, including engine designs, from General Electric.
His arrest came after Crowdstrike, a Cybersecurity, published a report saying that with the support of Beijing, a raid was carried out on the computer systems of suppliers of an engine manufacturer, including Capstone Turbine and Safran.
“The trickiest thing to do is the engine,” says Stallard. “This is the secret sauce. That's what they've been trying to reverse engineer for decades.”
The big question is how quickly China can catch up as engine technology moves forward into the era of composite materials rather than aluminum and titanium.
But the prize is big. According to Barclays analysts, China accounts for about a sixth of domestic flying hours.
“The government is committed to further expansion of the domestic market. Therefore, I think that in the next 10 to 20 years it will exceed the global average,” says Stallard.
According to Ms. Ashton, this development also offers many jobs in high-tech manufacturing, as China also moves away from the role of a low-margin factory in the world and plans to provide its population with more profitable jobs.
Although the aircraft is an unknown product in a competitive and highly regulated market, Beijing may be able to bring it to the international stage, Mr. Stallard says.
About 670 C919s are in service. orders, many of which have been snapped up by leasing companies in China.
While the largest airlines prefer to buy and own their aircraft, albeit financed by debt, smaller operators lease them with crew or contracts with or without maintenance.< /p>
China launched a charming offensive against Europe through diplomatic meetings with people like French President Emmanuel Macron. Credit: Ludovic Marin/AP
Leasing them could convince China that foreign airlines will test the planes without risking ownership, Mr Stallard said.
If the China embargo or other political changes mean maintenance becomes an issue, they can return the keys with less of a penalty than trying to resell them.
This could eventually lead to some soft power. for China in countries that have not decided on its approach to the South China Sea,” says Ms Ashton.
She said: “China’s ability to sell passenger aircraft to other countries is another arrow in its quiver, allowing economic diplomacy to be promoted from countries that may be on the verge of changing their orientation from Taiwan to China.
«They may be less interested in talking about Chinese plans for Taiwan because of their economic dependence on China or the economic benefits they get from relations with China.»
While the West waits for action regarding Taiwan, it is also worth looking at the picture between China, the US and Europe, she added, as well as the picture for Comac, Boeing and Airbus.
As for the US and China, “we are in a manageable downturn in relation. I don't see a near or mid-term inflection point that could fundamentally change the fact that the US and China are now more strategically apart than they were a year ago or five years ago.»
At the same time, China launched an offensive against Europe through diplomatic meetings and proposals to try to make peace between Russia and Ukraine.
“Europe’s position at the center of it all makes it almost a cornerstone in determining whether the United States and China will lead the world into a truly polarized dynamic or something less confrontational.”
Свежие комментарии