By the end of this year, the shortage of mainline tractors in the Russian market may reach 55%. One of the possible unpleasant consequences of such a shortage is an increase in transportation tariffs and, as a result, an increase in prices for goods and services for the population.
There are several reasons for the shortage of tractors on the market: many carriers were forced to pause fleet renewal in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, then the situation was aggravated by the global shortage of microchips, then by well-known geopolitical events, in connection with which “ big European seven” (DAF, Iveco, MAN, Mercedes-Benz, Renault, Scania, Volvo), and Russian manufacturers cannot quickly increase the production of tractors due to sanctions, that is, lack of components.
Russian manufacturers this year will be able to produce only 10,000 tractors (of which 9,000 are KAMAZ), while the market demand is 25,000 vehicles — this is the consolidated assessment of the main participants in the transportation market, PEK, TRASCO, GXO, the National Union of Transport Experts and Logistics (SEL) and the Russian Automobile Dealers Association (ROAD).
As in the passenger segment, Chinese brands are becoming the main substitutes for the departed Western brands. According to the Avtostat agency, last year Chinese companies increased the volume of deliveries of mainline tractors to our country by an order of magnitude: if in 2021 about 200 vehicles were imported, then in 2022 — 4800. Chinese manufacturers are ready to sell more, but the release of new models to the market slows down the long process of their certification in Russia by NAMI — from four months.
Importing G7 vehicles through the parallel import mechanism is a poor solution to the problem, since such vehicles are very expensive: prices for European tractors have increased by about 70% over the past year. In addition, the «gray» cars do not have proper service support, the supply of spare parts for them is very difficult, the prices for some components and assemblies when delivered through the parallel import mechanism have tripled: for example, a Scania gas pump cost 150 thousand rubles according to the company's catalog , in the current realities, 450 thousand rubles have to be paid for it.
According to the PEK, the average market cost of spare parts increased last year by 20-50%, maintenance — by 30%. The average price of a new mainline tractor increased by 16% to 8.6 million rubles, while the price of Russian-made vehicles grew faster than the market, the increase was 25%: for example, KAMAZ K5 now costs 12 million rubles, while Chinese counterparts cost an average of 9 million rubles. At KAMAZ, the price includes MOT, which is a big plus with its developed service network. Chinese manufacturers are also gradually expanding their service network, but it is still mostly concentrated in the central part of Russia.
The total volume of the Russian market of main tractors, according to the National Agency for Industrial Information, is about 720 thousand vehicles, the average age of the fleet is more than 20 years. The shortage of new cars is leading to an increase in the average age, an increase in road accidents and an increase in the cost of repairing and operating worn-out trucks.
Vadim Filatov, Deputy Director of PEK, commented on the current situation: “Whatever way the goods go, in the end it is delivered to the store shelf by road. Unfortunately, due to the increase in the cost of equipment, spare parts and consumables, carriers can raise tariffs by 7-10%. Our company is not at all interested in this and does everything not to shift the growth of costs into tariffs for customers. We are optimizing internal processes, it is time to activate external ones by launching measures to support companies before the prices on the shelves of Russian stores increase.”
TRASCO General Director Evgeny Shakalida proposes the following measures: “It is necessary to reduce customs duties on vehicles . One of the options is to introduce a zero duty on the import of tractors of the Euro-5 category and above for two years. On the one hand, this will help improve the safety and environmental friendliness of cargo transportation in Russia, and on the other hand, it will temporarily fill the shortage of tractors. And domestic manufacturers will have time to increase the output of equipment.”
SEL Executive Director Olga Fedotkina also proposes to expand the list of parallel imports of unaccounted for auto parts (including positions and brands), which will make it easier to maintain in proper technical condition of tractors of brands that left Russia.
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