News of the poll will pose a new headache for Mr Sunak just days after he quelled a backbencher rebellion against his Rwanda bill
The Conservatives must topple Rishi Sunak or face an election “massacre”, one of the prime minister's former cabinet allies has said, as polling shows the new Tory leader could defeat Sir Keir Starmer.
Sir Simon Clarke, who was number two at Sunak's Treasury, believes “extinction is a very real possibility” for the Conservative Party if Sunak leads it to a general election this year.
In an article for The Telegraph: He says that while Mr Sunak has many admirable qualities, “he's not getting what Britain needs and he's not listening to what the British people want.”
YouGov poll, which attracted 13,000 voters shows that a new Tory leader who champions core Conservative values can secure a landslide victory over Labour.
When people were asked who they would prefer as Prime Minister – Sir Keir or a new Conservative leader with tax cuts and a tougher approach to legal and illegal migration – voters in 322 constituencies in England and Wales favored a new Conservative leader, while Sir Keir took first place with just 164 places.
In 89 counties, the most common answer was “not sure.” If unsure respondents are excluded, the new Tory will be most popular in 375 constituencies to 200.
Downing Street believes many people are still undecided on who to vote for and that the tax cut package will the electorate will win in the coming months.
Last week The Telegraph reported that the same polling company had put Sir Keir ahead in 483 constituencies to Mr Sunak's 139 in a head-to-head head-to-head battle where “unsure” respondents were not excluded. It also showed the Tories would lose 196 seats, leaving them with just 169 MPs and Sir Keir with a majority of 120.
A new headache
The news comes as a fresh headache for No 10 just days after Mr Sunak managed to quell a backbencher revolt against his plan for illegal migrants in Rwanda, which some on his party's right say is too lenient.
How This will not only put potential leadership rivals on alert, but will also give Tory election strategists food for thought amid fears the party will lose votes for a reformist Britain in some areas and for the Lib Dems in others if it does not do more traditional politics. Conservative agenda.
Sir Simon, who was chief secretary to the Treasury when Mr Sunak was chancellor and served as skills secretary under Liz Truss, is the most senior Tory to publicly call for a change in leadership.
He was one of 11 Conservative MPs to vote against Sunak's Rwanda Bill last week. Although the Prime Minister has fended off a challenge to his authority, he will receive a vote of confidence from his MPs if 52 of them submit letters to the 1922 party committee.
Sir Simon said: “The plain truth is that Rishi Sunak is leading the Conservatives towards an election that will destroy us.”
While Mr Sunak is not entirely to blame for the party's current unpopularity, “his uninspiring leadership is the main obstacle to our recovery,” he writes. “Rishi Sunak has gone from asset to anchor.”
YouGov conducted its poll using a multilevel regression and post-stratification method, considered the gold standard in election polling, which breaks down results to the constituency level and accurately predicts the results of the 2017 and 2019 general elections. It was commissioned by a group of Conservative donors called the Alliance for Conservative Britain.
The poll did not give respondents the names of possible alternative Tory leaders, but asked who they would prefer as Prime Minister: Sir Keir or a new Tory leader who has been stronger on crime and migration, who has cut taxes and cut NHS waiting lists .
In all elections since 1951, with the exception of the first, the party whose leader the public considers the best prime minister has won.
The YouGov poll shows support for Sir Keir is slim because large numbers of voters would shift their preference for him if there was the prospect of a new Conservative leader.
Sir Simon believes this shows voters want to support the Conservatives , but they are put off by Mr Sunak's presence.
In the former “Red Wall” seats won from Labor by Boris Johnson's Conservatives in 2019, the new Tory leader favors Sir Keir in 85 out of 97 electoral districts.
While the prospect of a new Tory leader does nothing to change the situation in London, where the Labor Party remains firmly aligned, the new Tory leader leads Sir Keir by 51 to 12 percent among 2019 voters who have since defected.
“Now is not the time to despair. It's time to act”
Unlike some Tory MPs who believe defeat is inevitable and that the election should be about minimizing their losses, Sir Simon is convinced the party still has a “fighting chance” of winning a historic fifth term if it changes course.< /p >
“Now is not the time to despair. It's time to act,” he says. “Labour has completely failed to make a deal with the public… if we change leader to a Prime Minister who shares the instincts of the majority and is willing to take the country in the right direction, we will recover strongly this year,” Starmer denies the carte blanche he seeks , and perhaps even win the election.”
While many Conservative Party members share Sir Simon's disappointment in Mr Sunak's leadership, most still believe that the change of a fifth leader in five years will leave the party chaotic and desperate.
However, there is also a growing school of thought. according to which many of them may change their minds if Nigel Farage, currently honorary president of Reform UK, decides to return to frontline politics later this year, as he has hinted he might.
Polls suggest such a move would boost support for reform beyond the 10 per cent share of voters who currently say they will vote for the Right Party, which Sir Simon believes could spell the end of the Conservative Party.
He writes: “I know that many deputies are afraid that another change of leader will look ridiculous. But what could be funnier than a resigned sleepwalking towards destruction that could have been avoided because we did not want to listen to what the public was telling us so clearly?
Following Sir Simon's call, senior Conservatives warned against “easy and divisive self-indulgence”.
Dame Priti Patel, the former home secretary, said: “At this critical time for our country, with challenges at home and abroad, our party must focus on the people we serve and deliver for the country. . Self-indulgent and divisive only serves our opponents, it's time to unite and get on with the job.”
Sir David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, tweeted: “This is getting stupid. The party and the country are tired of MPs who put their leadership ambitions ahead of Britain's interests.”
Meanwhile, Sir Liam Fox, the former trade secretary, said: “Now is not the time for self-indulgence and tribalism in the party. Those with plans to destabilize the government in an election year must understand the consequences. Having spent all 13 years in opposition on the bench, it's a terrible place to be. Be careful.”
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