Azerbaijan's victory hurts Putin critics, but pushes Armenia closer to Western allies

Nikol Pashinyan spoke after separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh announced a cessation of hostilities with Azerbaijan. Photo: Karen Minasyan/AFP

Azerbaijan The defeat of ethnic Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh may have been a blow to Kremlin critics, but it will also push Yerevan towards the West.

After a 24-hour attack by Azerbaijani forces, ethnic Armenians surrendered. This completes a major military success for Ilham Aliyev, the President of Azerbaijan, who celebrated the reunification of all of Nagorno-Karabakh.

«Azerbaijan has restored its sovereignty,» Mr. Aliyev said.

Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia's prime minister, has been hit hard by the loss of the disputed region, and protests could threaten his government.

«Yerevan is already engulfed in anti-government protests,» said Alex Melikishvili, director of research analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Ilham Aliyev spoke about the “restoration” of Azerbaijan’s sovereignty; over the attack Photo: ATTILA KYSBENEDEK/AFP via Getty Images

And Azerbaijan's victory may also please Vladimir Putin, who analysts say will view the protests in Yerevan as retribution for Pashinyan's humiliation of criticism, as well as a warning to others leaders of former Soviet states leaving his sphere of influence.

Mr Pashinyan has become an outspoken critic of Russia and has tried to reorient Armenia's diplomacy towards the West. He said the war in Ukraine had weakened the Kremlin and that Moscow had failed to protect Armenia's sovereignty.

For Putin, an arch-colonialist who believes in Moscow's divine right to rule its neighbors, this was perhaps too much.

Stephen Hall, associate professor of Russian politics at the University of Bath, said the Kremlin may have encouraged Aliyev to attack ethnic Armenian forces.

“[The Kremlin] could have told him: 'Why Why not finish the job?” We're not going to do anything about it,” Mr. Hall said.

The Kremlin negotiated a peace deal after a five-week war in 2020 that left Azerbaijan with most of Nagorno-Karabakh but also left ethnic Armenians in control of Stepanakert, the region's largest city.

Protesters in Yerevan are unhappy with the government's actions regarding Nagorno-Karabakh and the fate of ethnic Armenians Photo: REUTERS/Irakli Gedenidze

There is also reason to believe that the Kremlin may have known that Azerbaijan was planning an attack.

Russian peacekeepers were unable to intervene to stop the attack, just as they were unable to prevent the Azerbaijani military from building a blockade of the only road that connected Nagorny Karabakh is with mainland Armenia, and one of the main sources of information about the attack was a Telegram channel known to be associated with the Russian security service.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also said that Azerbaijan was acting on its territory “de jure” by returning parts of Nagorno-Karabakh, which it did not do. I'm already in control.

More mysteriously, perhaps, Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president, also left a sardonic message against Pashinyan on his Telegram channel shortly after the start of the Azerbaijani attack. He mentioned the leader of a once “brotherly country” who turned his back on Russia and turned to NATO only to be defeated in the war.

«Guess what fate awaits him…» he said.

'Armenia may be looking for other allies'

But Stefan Rindlisbacher, a researcher at the European Viadrina University in Frankfurt, said that although The Kremlin may now be enjoying Pashinyan's headache; Azerbaijan's victory has also created problems for his own power.

“With Nagorno-Karabakh gone forever, Armenia can look for other allies,” he said.

Yerevan is currently hosting military exercises with the US and is encouraging closer ties with USA. NATO, but the former Soviet states in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, which have also increased contacts with the West, can now see the Kremlin's realpolitik trap in which Armenia remains hanging.

“The EU does not want to alienate Azerbaijan and its energy resources,” said Rasmus Nilsson, a lecturer at the School of Slavic and East European Studies in London. “The United States has neither the time nor the energy to spend on any military assistance to Armenia.”