Iran launched about 300 drones and missiles at Israel. Photo: IRANIAN ARMY OFFICE HANDOUT/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
Iran's direct attack on Israel late Saturday is a high-stakes, worst-case scenario game.
The attack itself was well-forewarned and , despite the large number of shells involved, was independent in nature. It would seem that this was not a nation rushing into full-scale war, or not yet.
If Tehran really wanted to inflict massive damage on its arch-enemy, there would be no warning and Hezbollah, its proxy and bargaining chip in the region, would be ordered to simultaneously launch its own blitzkrieg from Lebanon.
The terrorist group , which makes Hamas look like a minnow, is believed to have more than 100,000 missiles aimed at Israel, many of them precision-guided.
Instead, Iran sent a message: It will no longer allow respected members of its Revolutionary Guard to be killed without outright reprisal.
The scale of the attack – involving more than 300 drones and missiles – also makes it clear to Israel that it is relying on US and US support. other Western countries in their defense. Her Iron Dome air defense system is good, but still appears to be more than defeatable.
Iran's attack also poses a challenge to the West: Should it risk a full-scale war in the region, or should it try to rein in Israel?
Finally, Iran is sending a message to its people that it is not powerless in the face of Israeli aggression. This is important for a regime that is struggling to maintain legitimacy at home amid a severe economic downturn and growing civil unrest.
The mullahs hope the drone swarm will be enough to show strength without provoking a horrific counterattack on itself Iran.
But preventing escalation and full-scale war will not be easy.
Iran's mission to the UN said on Sunday that the attack was a legitimate act of self-defense under the UN Charter and “the matter can be considered concluded.”
Israel, on the other hand, described the attack as a “major escalation” by Iran, and it reportedly informed the US and other Middle Eastern countries that it would have to respond.
There seems to be no doubt that the West will try to prevent a counterattack, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not a man who can be easily deterred.
< p>Like Iran's leaders, his position within the country is unstable, and if he fails. to react, he may be forced out by the religious fanatics on whom his coalition government depends.
The Americans certainly sound as if they will work hard to stop the escalation of the conflict.
Almost as soon as the Israeli skies fell silent on Sunday morning, US President Joe Biden signaled that he would seek a diplomatic solution .
He said he would “coordinate a joint diplomatic response to Iran's brazen attack.” , while warning Iran that America “remains vigilant against all threats” in the region.
That message was quickly echoed in London, where Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said he was “committed to de-escalating the crisis.”
“All our efforts at the moment are aimed at de-escalating this situation. We don't want to miscalculate or escalate because we know that will have negative consequences,” said Victoria Atkins, the health minister, when asked about the government's position.
The same idea was spread by countries as diverse as Russia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, France and the United Arab Emirates.
Russia, which has close ties to Iran, called for restraint and expressed “extreme concern about another dangerous escalation in the region.”
China added: “The conflict must end now. China calls on the international community, especially influential countries, to play a constructive role for peace and stability in the region.”
These are not just words. Diplomats around the world see the risk. If a full-scale war were to break out between Israel and Iran, it would almost certainly drag much of the rest of the world into it, with devastating consequences.
But can Netanyahu and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF)? be restrained?
Show of defiance by Iran's political elite in Tehran's parliament, but will it backfire Photo: Zuma Press/Eyevine/Icana News Agency
The Iranian military is already egging them on, the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Sunday that his strikes were “even more successful than expected.”
He also said that the attack was “deliberately restrained, consistent with the scale of aggression shown by the Zionist regime.”
Israel is also positioning yourself.
A senior Israeli intelligence source told The Telegraph that the Iranian operation was a serious blow to Tehran.
“They did not predict that the coalition would work against them, the British, the French, the US, the Jordanians intercept the missiles… This is a serious strategic blow on the Iranians and a setback for the Iranian axis,” he said.
If there is any hope, it is that a very significant number of projectiles fired by Iran on Saturday were shot down by Western military assets, not IDF.
This should, according to experts, give Biden and other Western leaders real influence over Israel.
This should, according to experts, give Biden and other Western leaders real influence over Israel.
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“There will be a price for this,” an Israeli intelligence source told The Telegraph. “From now on, the Americans will dictate everything to us in this region, and personally I am afraid that the American administration is going to end the war.”
Many will hope that he is right, although with completely different opinions about the ongoing conflict in Gaza Strip.
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