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    5. The ruble will recover after falling


    The ruble will recover after falling

    The dollar exchange rate exceeded 93 rubles for the first time in almost two weeks. Since the beginning of trading, the American currency has risen in price by more than 60 kopecks, but later its value decreased slightly. At the same time, at the beginning of February 2024, the dollar jumped above 93 rubles. analysts attributed it to a technical error. Before this, the US currency broke through this mark in December. The euro exchange rate today reached almost 101 rubles.

    On Friday, February 23, the American authorities are expected to announce the introduction of new anti-Russian sanctions in connection with the death of Alexei Navalny. New restrictions were announced the other day. The ruble reacted to these messages late, says Iskander Lutsko, chief investment strategist at the investment company Aygenis: “There is a certain lag, but I would say that it is more related to the general reaction of the market. A correction is overdue, and in many ways this is rather a technical reason, which, of course, will not have fundamental consequences for the Russian economy and the stock market.

    I think the weakening will continue, but it will be quite gradual. It all depends on what will be in this 13th package of sanctions. Because the main focus is now on third countries that have participated and are participating in trade relations with Russia. It seems to me that this largely explains the behavior of the stock market. Previously, this concerned the sale of foreign currency, which, let me remind you, decreased by half compared to January. Again, exporters are selling less, given the limited foreign exchange earnings due to the depreciation.

    Fundamentally, it was the support of exporters that maintained the volatility of the exchange rate. Of course, dividends will also have an impact, as will taxes towards the end of the month, but this is more of a stabilizing factor.”

    Strict currency control measures will continue to support the national currency in the coming months, so the ruble exchange rate, even taking into account new sanctions, should not deviate much from current values, notes Raiffeisenbank chief economist Stanislav Murashov: “Taking into account all purchases and sales of currency, we still expect , that for the ruble the total effect for the year will be plus or minus neutrally positive. According to our preliminary calculations, this will provide support, but not immediately, but in general this year. Given the stability of the trade balance, relatively speaking, due to current transactions, I think that there is little threat to the ruble.

    Fluctuations may vary from time to time, but on average the level will remain the same which has developed. This is, conditionally, 90-95 rubles. per dollar, which were achieved thanks to exchange control measures introduced in 2023. I think the main factor now is exchange control and maintaining good volumes in the trade balance or current account balance. Naturally, one can come up with some more stringent sanctions measures, but even in this case it is far from obvious that the ruble will respond to them by weakening.”

    On February 21, on the stock market, analysts recorded anxiety on the part of trading participants: the main indices lost about 2%. Experts interviewed by Kommersant FM admit that new sanctions against Russia may be tougher than the previous ones, and will also affect the National Clearing Center. This would threaten the suspension of foreign exchange transactions.


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